Mainstreet polling, updated Mar 24
| Party | Seats | % | Change in Seats | Majority Probability | Minority Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 192 | 44.4% | +39 | 93.2% | 6.3% |
| Conservative | 118 | 37.8% | -1 | 0.1% | 4.1% |
| Bloc | 26 | 6.3% | -7 | 0% | 0% |
| New Democrat | 6 | 6.7% | -19 | N/A | N/A |
| Green | 1 | 1.4% | -1 | N/A | N/A |
| People's | 0 | 2.7% | -2.2% | N/A | N/A |
The long term warning is that if the LPC wins a majority and fails to reasonably address housing or general living costs we'll be back in this same position next cycle.
My hope is for a minority LPC government with either BQ or NDP forcing them away from neoliberalism - if that fails it's a long shot that Carney will turn his back on neoliberal economics... but Canada (and the world really) are at the breaking point from neoliberalism and we'll either gracefully correct or fall closer to authoritarianism and violence.
We need change - and we only have so many chances before a fucker like PP wins an election based on economic discontent and fucks us forever.
Edit: Just to be super clear - fuck the conservatives. I in no way desire them to end up in government and my statement comes from a place of rejecting anti-trans hate and embracing a sane environmental response to climate change.
Yep, this is where I am too.
I'm annoyed at having to vote Liberal, to be honest, but I hope this election makes it clear that cozying up to American populists is a losing strategy in Canada.
I would have to think if the polls are right and the liberals manage to win a majority, the conservatives would have to do some real soul searching.
They'll just get angrier and play dirtier. That will be the result of their soul searching.
Conservatives would rather abandon democracy than conservatism
I'd love it if the Conservatives fielded a moderate, Joe Clark-style candidate. I'd be able to go through an election cycle without losing sleep for once.
I heard Christy Clarke is looking for work - she's essentially a moderate conservative.
The problem is that she would first have to win the party leadership. And the party nomination process has been hijacked by the fundies who don't want a moderate.
Maybe we'll get lucky and Carney will finally have enough government and provincial support to drop FPTP on federal elections.
Trudeau had that and did fuck all. We all need to spend the next 4 years actively hounding our MPs about this.
I like where your heads at but we really need to hound them for the next two months.
I've yet to see any news of him openly supporting PR outside of a PR friendly minister - did I miss an announcement?
That's true.
Unfortunately we have no real ability to microtarget the result between a minority and majority. With FPTP small changes in the popular vote in the 35-40% range produce drastic changes in seat numbers.
A possible side effect from a massive Liberal majority would be that the CPC is likely to split like it did in the past with Reform splitting from the PCs. In such a scenario, the next election would have a lot more room for a renewed NDP or something else to take votes from the LPC because the CPC won't automatically win due to vote split.