After less than two weeks of retreating with few shots fired and little resistance, the SAA has retreated into, well, a state of non-existence. This thereby ends a conflict that has been simmering for over a decade. With the end of this conflict, another begins: the carving up of what used to be Syria between Israel and Turkey, with perhaps the odd Syrian faction getting a rump state here and there. Both Israel and Turkey have begun military operations, with Israel working on expanding their territory in Syria and bombing military bases to ensure as little resistance as possible.
Israeli success in Syria is interesting to contrast against their failures in Gaza and Lebanon. A short time ago, Israel failed to make significant territorial progress in Lebanon due to Hezbollah's resistance despite the heavy hits they had recently taken, and was forced into a ceasefire with little to show for the manpower and equipment lost and the settlers displaced. The war with Lebanon was fast, but still slow enough to allow a degree of analysis and prediction. In contrast, the sheer speed of Syria's collapse has made analysis near-impossible beyond obvious statements like "this is bad" and "Assad is fucking up"; by the time a major Syrian city had fallen, you barely had time to digest the implications before the next one was under threat.
There is still too much that we don't know about the potential responses (and non-responses) of other countries in the region - Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Russia, for example. I think that this week and the next will see a lot of statements made by various parties and an elucidation of how the conflict will progress. The only thing that seems clear is that we are in the next stage of the conflict, and perhaps have been, in retrospect, since Nasrallah's assassination. This stage has been and will be far more chaotic as the damage to Israel compounds and they are willing to take greater and greater risks to stay in power. It will also involve Israel causing destruction all throughout the region, rather than mostly localizing it in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Successful gambles like with Syria may or may not outweigh the unsuccessful ones like with Lebanon. This is a similar road to the one apartheid South Africa took, but there are also too many differences to say if the destination will be the same.
What is certain is that Assad's time in power can be summarized as a failure, both to be an effective leader and to create positive economic conditions. His policies were actively harmful to internal stability for no real payoff and by the end, all goodwill had been fully depleted. By the end, the SAA did not fight back; not because of some wunderwaffen on the side of HST, but because there was nothing to fight for, and internal cohesion rapidly disintegrated.
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section. Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war. Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis. Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language. https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one. https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts. https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel. https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator. https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps. https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language. https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language. https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses. https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
"Uncomfortable, Awkward and Intimidating.": Prospective Citizens Grilled in Demeaning Danish "Mindset Interviews"
Today, three applicants for Danish citizenship faced the naturalization committee of the Nordic hermit kingdom's rubber-stamp parliament for unprecedented "mindset interviews". The process, designed to evaluate adherence to "Danish values" and gauge the "democratic mindset" of applicants marks a controversial new chapter in Denmark's citizenship procedures.
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Anonymous Snitching Snubs Hopes Of Citizenship
The two men and one woman, who had already fulfilled Denmark's exhaustive naturalization requirements, were subjected to this grilling following anonymous complaints about their Facebook activity. The complaints triggered a freeze on their applications, despite the applicants meeting a laundry list of requirements that includes everything from employment, a clean criminal record and having no outstanding public debts to passing a language exam and a trivia quiz, signing a declaration of loyalty and physically shaking the hand of the local mayor or similar official (skin contact explicitly required).
Their hopes of citizenship now rest on a vote by the naturalization committee, which has the power to reject or approve their applications. One applicant is reported to have used a picture of Saddam Hussein as his profile picture. Another posted a homophobic comment urging parliament to "do something about your homosexuality instead" in response to parliament passing an islamophobic "Burqa ban". While such expressions are ostensibly protected under Denmark’s constitution, they have now become grounds for informal inquisitions into applicants' "democratic mindset".
The interviews happened behind closed doors but some questions from anonymous committee members have been reported. Questions included:
Should homosexuals be allowed to hold hands and kiss in public?
What would you say if your child dated someone who wasn’t Muslim?
Which value do you think is the most important in a democracy?
Peder Hvelplund, member of the committee for the pro-democracy "Red-Green" opposition party did not ask any questions. Instead he spent his talking time apologizing to applicants that they had to be "dragged through such an undignified process".
The committee's vice-chair, Helene Brydensholt from the green "Alternative" party had resigned in protest and was not present.
Being targeted as props for right-wing culture war theatrics is likely to have devastating consequences for the applicants' prospects of gaining citizenship and having their legal and political rights safeguarded. All three were visibly nervous and emotional before appearing before the committee. The woman applicant left the hearing in visible distress, rushing past reporters in tears.
Pro-democracy Opposition: "Uncomfortable, Awkward and Intimidating"
The racist majority of the committee had a positive assessment of the interrogations with chairman of the committee, Islamophobic firebrand Mikkel Bjørn from the fascist Danish People's Party called the interviews "a really good conversation and a really good dialogue". The pro-democratic opposition had a different view of the interviews with Hvelplund describing them as "the most uncomfortable, awkward and intimidating experience" in his time in politics.
The interrogations are a long-time wet dream of the racist right and are the pet project of Mikkel Bjørn whose racist views are well-documented. Bjørn has stated an explicit and borderline genocidal desire to reduce the Muslim population of Denmark, remove the legal status of all Muslim faith communities and "make islamic life in Denmark close to impossible".
The efforts of Bjørn and the "Danish People's Party" has been seconded by the ruling "Social Democrats" whose already reactionary politics has taken a significant authoritarian turn over recent years. Social Democrat committee member Anders Kronborg has described the intimidating interviews as "a grand gesture" towards applicants who are "invited to the stronghold of democracy" to tell "why they have these views and find them reconcilable with having a Danish passport".
Expect The Danish Inquisition: Libertarians Demands "Systematic Screenings" Of All Applicants
The interviews are not the only measure taken by Denmark's Islamophobic political elite to police the speech of the kingdom's Muslim minority. The far-right libertarian "Liberal Alliance" party has demanded that the regime forms an expert group to develop even more intrusive mechanisms to "systematically screen" the "democratic mindset" of all who apply for citizenship.
The interviews happens as the latest development in over three decades of rightward shift in Danish politics that has made islamophobic and racist opinions the new "political correctness" among the media and ruling elite. Especially the "Social Democrats", who once had roots in the labour movement, have moved so far right as to be virtually indistinguishable from the fascist Danish People's Party.
A Process Mired In Chaos
The interviews are happening in a legal grey zone under chaotic and arbitrary procedures. Leading up to today's interrogations legal scholars and civil servants had voiced concerns about the legality of the interrogations under national and international human rights law. This did not move the committee's majority who decided to push forward with the interviews.
In Denmark's peculiar naturalization process that dates back to the 1800's citizenship is granted through a legislative process rather than an administrative one. In practice this leaves applicants at the mercy of political whim, stripped of many of the legal protections against arbitrary, biased and lazy decisions that normally apply in administrative law. The sheer amount of applicants and paperwork means that the MP's on the committee often vote on applications they have never read and their decisions are reported to depend on the individual moods of MP's on the day of the vote rather than on serious casework.
Today was no different and up to the last moments the procedural rules of the interrogations were unclear. In the letter summoning them to appear before the committee applicants had been told to come alone. However, one applicant had asked in advance whether they could bring a council. After some debate and confusion the request was granted. When appearing the council asked whether they were allowed to record the proceedings. This caused some debate in the committee before proceedings could go ahead. It is unknown whether the council was allowed to record the interrogation or not.
The three applicants will know whether they've passed through the needle's eye on December 19th when the naturalization bill is introduced to parliament. The Danish People's Party has already announced that they will vote against the naturalization of two of the applicants.
Denying citizenship on arbitrary grounds contravenes international human rights law. However, courts lack the authority to grant citizenship to those unfairly denied, leaving compensation as the only recourse for victims of this deeply flawed process.
This is so dark. And very absurd. Probably not long until this gets implemented elsewhere in the Nordic countries, I am sure every reactionary is impressed.
I personally can't wait until they build the world's most racist AI to crawl social media in search of uppity Muslims. It is going to suck shit so bad and people are going to love it.