Bulletins and News Discussion from December 2nd to December 8th, 2024 - May A Hundred Hazel Flowers Bloom - COTW: Russia
Bulletins and News Discussion from December 2nd to December 8th, 2024 - May A Hundred Hazel Flowers Bloom - COTW: Russia
Image is of one of the six salvos of the Oreshnik missile striking Ukraine.
The Oreshnik is an intermediate-range ballistic missile that appears to split into six groups of six submunitions as it strikes its target, giving it the appearance of a hazel flower. It can travel at ten times the speed of sound, and cannot be intercepted by any known Western air defense system, and thus Russia can strike and conventionally destroy any target anywhere in Europe within 20 minutes. Two weeks ago, Russia used the Oreshnik to strike the Yuzhmash factory in Ukraine, particularly its underground facilities, in which ballistic missiles are produced.
Despite the destruction caused by the missile, and its demonstration of Russian missile supremacy over the imperial core, various warmongering Western countries have advocated for further reprisals against Russia, with Ukraine authorized by the US to continue strikes. Additionally, the recent upsurge of the fighting in Syria is no doubt connected to trying to stretch Russia thin, as well as attempting to isolate Hezbollah and Palestine from Iran; how successful this will have ended up being will depend on the outcome of the Russia and Syrian counteroffensive. Looking at recent military history, it will take many months for the Russians and Syrians to retake a city that was lost in about 48 hours.
Even in the worst case scenario for Hezbollah, it's notable that Ansarallah has had major success despite being physically cut off from the rest of the Resistance and under a blockade, and it has defeated the US Navy in its attempts to open up the strait. Israel has confirmed now that their army cannot even make significant territorial gains versus a post-Nasrallah, post-pager terrorist attack Hezbollah holding back its missile strike capabilities. In 2006, it also could not defeat a much less well-armed Hezbollah and was forced to retreat from Lebanon.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
You're viewing a single thread.
All of this gnostic talk kind of proves the pitfalls of supporting any religion based resistance movement. It's not very deep, people are just losing faith. (Ironically alawites are influenced by gnosticism too which is probably partly why they are in such danger right now, remember what happened to the melek taus worshippers)
Now is the time for honesty. The honest issue here is that the axis of resistance requires a strong Iran and a strong Russia. This is probably why Israel let October 7th happen, it was the worst possible timing for an intifada. At the end of the day, Hamas is a Muslim brotherhood offshoot that supported Syrian rebels, the fact that hezbollah even helped them at all was an act of mercy that explains the initial hesitation.
As for the future of Syria, the knives are already coming out. The new Bin Laden is talking about legal principles for the protection of minorities, but I am pretty sure he just means jizzya taxes and other tolerances of people of the book that is already found in sharia. (Not sure if that applies to alawites since sunnis view them as super heretics) He also talked about communal confederalism (Occalan's comunalism winning in Syria was not on my bingo card) which is probably why I am hearing rumors that Erdogan is about to sanction him. (Will confirm later)
As this goes on greater Israel expands past the Golan heights. The question here is how they deal with a Druze breakaway state and if they think attacking Latakia is worth missing off Russia and clearing the board for Erdogan, the true winner of the Biden administration. (He helped orchestrate the defeat of both Armenia and Syria, neo ottomanism is going to replace axis of resistance talk for the next two decades.
I don't think Israel went full Sherlock Holmes and predicted the future about it being bad for the resistance. The PFLP and the communist factions in Gaza supported the operation. It's that Israel's prime minister doesn't want to go to jail so he needs to keep war going as long as possible - another leader would likely have pulled out months ago and not attacked Lebanon Iran and Syria. The craven bloodthirst of the Biden admin, unprecedented even for the United States, is what allowed the genocide(s) to continue for this long - as opposed to the cowardice of Iran giving them no backstop.
Hamas and Hezbollah are still in a relatively strong position, it's not time to doom because an incompetent unpopular regime got Afghanistan-ed.
Bibi is not going to jail. People need to stop parroting this talking point. The man is extremely popular on Israel again.
I didn't say he was and I'm not parroting anything. Notice how you said popular again, as in he was super unpopular before the genocides and pursued them because Israel loves genocide.
You said that his only continuing this war to avoid jail.
I think you misunderstood what I'm saying. He still has those cases pending against him. If there's a 1% chance he goes to jail when he ends these genocides, but a 0% chance while he keeps them going, he has every incentive to continue a perpetual state of war until he can coup the supreme Zionist court or whatever. Especially while Biden bends over backwards for "lethad aid" in every way possible.
Israel is always in a perpetual state of war, killing Syria actually makes that legal fiction less defendable.
His not going to jail. Quit talking about it.
...Hezbollah and Hamas are fucked, there is no Iranian supply route anymore. Remember, the Iranian embassy just got ransacked. Best case scenario, Syria turns into a new Jordan and absorbs Palestinian refugees. Worst case scenario, France uses attacks on Christians to reenter the coast to make up for its loss of west africa. My bet though is on Turkey moving in and promising to close the bosphorus at a later date.
Sometimes propping up a proxy isn't worth the money and man power. You better be willing to let it be blown up only if you are willing to annex the scraps, overwise you just have to admit you've lost.
I don't understand your point about the proxy. You're saying the Palestinian/Lebanese resistance is fucked because they've got no supply now but they also shouldn't have sent troops to support one of their most important supply lines? How does that work?
Also, the IRA managed to get weapons smuggled overseas from Libya. Just because an important route will become more difficult (and a strong enough state to prevent smuggling is going to take a while) doesn't mean it's instantly Joever ™️.
I'm saying Russia and Iran gave up because the SAA gave up. Now honestly I expected some resistance in the mountains, apparently even that didn't happen. (Syria didn't fight for Hezbollah either, just saying)
Also there is a big difference between the IRA and Hezbollah, come on now. With this defeat, the west has finally recovered from the cluster fuck caused by the fall of Saddam Hussein. (A clusterfuck that enabled the US to invade Syria so it had its uses, maybe Cheney was onto something) The only question here is whether Turkey is content or if Iraq falls too. Given the ideological make up of this group, there is always the possibility of an Egyptian collapse as well once Israel builds its canal but I doubt it. All in all Iran now has the choice of hosting Russian troops or dying, there is no in between.
Idk I feel like you're dooming too much. The US always has primary and secondary objectives for their evil operations and they would definitely have preferred a fully comprador Iraq rather than a weak state with the PMFs openly fighting them. It has yet to be seen if Syria will end up the same way but I think it's more likely that happens than they end up with a fascist Lebanon-type regime. I feel like Turkey would also rather go after the Kurds first than Iraq, no?
Please stop calling people doomers. This site censors the crap out of stuff like this then pretends no one could have seen defeat coming.
That's a fair criticism - doomer is not really a useful term. It just sucks that the information environment being as it is means getting flooded with contradictory accounts all the time. But no one, not the western media, not resistance media, thought this was at all possible not too long ago.
The kurds in Iraq are the primary target, there are two clan factions there that will turn on each other again if things go to shit. Remember that Iraq relatively recently (probably trump years tbh) took away a major city held by the kurds)
Hamas is not equipped by Iran. Their weapons are entirely homemade (or possibly smuggled in from Egypt, at least before Oct 7 but not much is known about this). The domestic production of arms in Gaza while the genocide is ongoing is truly spectacular, to this very moment they appear to have not lost any capability for domestic arms production.
And as far as Hezbollah goes, so long as there is chaos and turmoil within Syria I don’t see the supply lines from Iran stopping.
The issue is logistics, Israel is fully willing to spend 5 years starving them out. With Syria defeated and Hezbollah possibly on its last legs assuming the rebels don't stop at the border, they are all alone. (Aside from Yemen which honestly should be preparing for its own defense right now)
Also Iran is not capable of sustained airlifts to Hezbollah, Israel would bomb the landing strips.
if they think attacking Latakia is worth missing off Russia and clearing the board for Erdogan,
Latakia is currently being evacuated by Russia and Iran, there's not going to be anything to attack to piss off Russia, it'll be gone.
They would be wise to let the Russians leave the Mediterranean altogether instead of provoking them.
With the Russian ability to support the resistance in the Middle East gone, US/NATO/Israel will now have free rein in the region. Syria is a strategic victory that will further isolate the entire Axis of Resistance, and a significant loss of Russian materiel support in the region. This will have dire consequences for the resistance against Western imperialism in the years to come…
They would be wise to let the Russians leave the Mediterranean altogether instead of provoking them.
That appears to be what is happening, the evacuation of Latakia is being observed by US reconnaissance aircraft, with Russian cargo planes taking off and landing constantly, and the Iranian Mahan Air evacuation flights always fly over Al Tanf before turning towards Latakia. The Syrian private jet C5SKY gets followed by US reconnaissance aircraft when it's outside of Syrian airspace. I'm guessing a backrooms deal has been cut to guarantee the safety of these flights and the evacuation of Russian and Iranian forces.
I'm fact there's a Mahan Air evacuation flight heading towards Al Tanf airspace right now, it will then turn towards and land at Latakia after that.
did you forget that Russia can and does trade with Iran directly? direct Russian material support to Assad was evidently going to the wrong place anyway
How does that change the fact that losing Tartus and Khmeimim (if they are indeed being evacuated as some are reporting) is a huge blow to Russia’s military supply to the Middle East?
And I’m not talking about what Russia/Assad has done recently, I am talking about its impact years down the road. It will be very difficult to establish a footprint in the Mediterranean again once they’re out, and that will change the geopolitical dynamics in the region.
Remember when people are talking about whether Russia can supply their latest air defense systems to Lebanon/Syria? If that was ever going to happen at some point, it’s not happening now. NATO and Israeli air forces will become emboldened with even more reckless bombing in the region.
That would give the Mediterranean completely to NATO. If I was in Algeria I'd be sweating right now.
Why Algeria, specifically?
There is a reason why Morocco is in the news so much this year. It's really an energy issue but overthrowing Algeria is the best way to both defeat Arab Republicanism (Not really Arab socialist anymore) and to throw all of north Africa into tribal confederalism that will be reunited by westernized harkis soon to be exiled from national front france.
As for the future of Syria, the knives are already coming out. The new Bin Laden is talking about legal principles for the protection of minorities, but I am pretty sure he just means jizzya taxes and other tolerances of people of the book that is already found in sharia. (Not sure if that applies to alawites since sunnis view them as super heretics) He also talked about communal confederalism (Occalan's comunalism winning in Syria was not on my bingo card) which is probably why I am hearing rumors that Erdogan is about to sanction him. (Will confirm later)
I have absolutely no idea what to expect from this
Stochastic terrorism slowly forcing the shia and Christians out of the country which will make room for Syrian refugees. We're just one shrine being blown up away from pandemonium and Druze Secession, which might lead to further Israeli expansion.
Syria wasn’t a religious state though, correct? Is it just that it was tied to a religious resistance movement?
...It was like Algeria, the rebels were all religion based. (The secularists won their civil war)
Hmm I need to read more