Ukraine-Russia Megathread 3

Being told this is fairly reliable for info on the situation in Ukraine. let me know if it isn't. https://liveuamap.com/

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teleSUR reported Putin has given Zelensky an ultimatum: surrender for peace terms including "neutral status and a refusal to deploy weapons on its territory" or the military offensive continues.
Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his openness to resolve this issue through dialogues with his Ukrainian counterpart. He looks for neutral status and a refusal to deploy weapons on its territory as part of Russia's red line issues. According to Peskov [Dmitry Peskov, Press Secretary of the Kremlin], such terms are the only right choice to reach the removal of military forces from Ukraine and lower the current escalation of the crisis, which threatens the security of the Russian state and its people.
Peskov noted Putin's statements on the operation, which is intended to assure peace in the Donbass region according to the president. In recent days, this region has been attacked by the Ukrainian army, claimed leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. Russia's operation intends to frustrate any Ukrainian military response.
So if I'm understanding this correctly, we're waiting for Zelensky to
surrender,
agree to abjure NATO, and
probably recognize the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk?
- Honestly that sounds reasonable. Don't join NATO and bring that aggression closer to their doorstep, recognize Donetsk and Lugansk as legitimate, and they'll stop the attacks and withdraw.
  
  With the US/Ukraine line being that Putin's goal is to kill Zelensky and his family, overthrow the government and install a Russian puppet, those seem like the best terms they could expect, even if they heroically hold out.
  Of course the offer could be disingenuous, but if it is taken seriously, the only reason not to take it seems to be a desire to get a bunch of civilians killed for national pride.
  
  Exactly. There wouldn't be an occupation, no overthrow of the government, and no masses of civilian deaths. If Putin is being sincere, this is way more humane and straightforward than anything the US would do.
  
  I absolutely don't trust Putin to be sincere. But considering Ukraine's position it is probably the best option.
  
  :yea: you're right
  
  Yeah, I wouldn't trust Putin, but the terms aren't actually asking Ukraine to give up anything right now. It seems like the worst case scenario is Zelensky says he's willing to agree to the terms, and Russia says 'lol' and keeps invading anyway. It would be embarrassing, but nothing would really have changed. If Russia reneges in the future, then we're back to where we are today.
  
  I’m curious how Russia will be viewed by China if Ukraine agrees to the terms but they continue invading anyway. I don’t think they’d care because it would mean a Russian satellite blocking NATO from getting closer to China.
- Saving face and cranking the meatgrinder to 11 with Western reinforcements is the only other option, and it's the dumbest possibility so I wouldn't rule it out
- a refusal to deploy weapons on its territory
  Does this mean that DPR/LPR would still be ukrainian under the terms? That seems like a major demand to leave unstated.
  
  Even if Ukraine isn't required to recognize DPR/LPR, it's a fait acompli at this point. The other two terms assure their independence and eventual integration into Russia. Putin's not demanding they recognize Crimea as Russian territory either.
  
  This is what I'm stumbling over as well.

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