Predictions
- Polymarket | India Election: Modi reelected?polymarket.com Polymarket | Indian Election: Modi reelected?
Polymarket | The 2024 Indian general election is scheduled to take place between April and May 2024. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Narendra Modi is the next prime minister of India followin...
cross-posted from: https://lemy.lol/post/22844267
> Need Opinion. > > What do you think is the right way to play this bet in the polygon prediction market? > > Is playing contrarian gonna give a huge pay off? > > Or Is going with the market trends going to help make decent but sure shot gains of 4-5%? > > By the way the election result is to be declared on June 4th, 2024. > > I still see most people in his favour despite everything. > > I personally don't like Modi much but as a business decision there are higher odds in betting in support of him. > > What are your thoughts on this?
- 5 years tech predictions
After dinner time discussion, my gf asked me to make a record.
In 5 years...
10% of search traffic is paid.
Reddit is primarily a short form video website (like Tiktok).
- Falcon 9 will still be in use at T+10 years after first Starship orbital flight.
SpaceX predictions are fun...
- No coup or regime change in Russia this year
At least, the community prediction is only at 24% right now. Personally, I'm at 60%.
- In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?manifold.markets In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
35% chance. IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to ex...
This market is very active currently. Bets are piling up for Yes and No positions, so there seem to be strong opinions on both sides.
- SpaceX will NOT put any human on Mars by 2030www.metaculus.com Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?
Musk notes if SpaceX "gets lucky and things go according to plan", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025.
- Biden will be the 2024 Democratic Nomineemanifold.markets Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
95% chance. The resolution is to the first nominee formally selected by the Democratic Party (which happens at the Democratic National Convention). If the nominee is later replaced (for example, due to dropping out of the election, death, etc) that does not change the resolution. If a candidate bec...
- the good judgement project - for resources on learning how to forecast well
Or do it like a the naughty social media normie that you and cite your horoscope
- In 2028, large language models (LLMs) will still give confident-sounding-yet-incorrect answers to simple math problems
For example, things like this:
Some models might be able to answer this precise question correctly, but they will still fail at many simple primary-school-level math questions.
More examples in my comment here.
- With rapidly growing costs of housing, companies will start offering housing as a hiring incentive, creating communities similar to the "company towns" of the past. By 2050
And the worst part is that, with so many companies shifting to work-from-home. it will create a culture (especially for early-career workers) that's less "work from home" and more "live at work." You'll be on call 24-hours a day, reachable at all times. And, for early-career workers getting out of college, it won't even seem like a strange transition from college dorms and fraternity/sorority houses to company housing.
Not only will this lead to a culture where just living on your own at all is a major achievement, it will create a culture where workers don't own much of their own, because they have little storage space. It also means that leaving or job or (god forbid) getting fired or laid off will also render you homeless almost immediately.
Maybe I should shh up before I start giving these companies ideas.
