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Are we going to see prediction markets enter mainstream journalism? Taylor Lorenz says yes
  • FWIW, I read this somewhat charitably: I didn't read this article as "I want there to be prediction markets in journalism" as much as "The right-wing fuckos are very into this shit, so expect for it to froth up out of the sewers in 2025." That being said, as discussed elsewhere, many of the finer points are questionable.

    N.B: I am not aware of Lorenz's shit opinions.

  • Are we going to see prediction markets enter mainstream journalism? Taylor Lorenz says yes
  • Oh yeah, haha. I often face the dilemma dilemma in which I have to choose between ignoring the 'incorrect" usage (i.e. not a choice between two things that are difficult to choose between) and seethe OR mention the correct usage and look like a pedant. Sometimes it's a trilemma, and I'm all over the shop. But more seriously, I usually let it slide and let people use it to mean "a situation".

    I doubt that Lorenz has a dilemma in line with the correct usage. I couldn't fight the urge to steelman, spoilered below, which I suspect this is nothing near what Lorenz had in mind.

    exhausting Steelman within. I only tried to come up with something, it's not a good steelman. I'm so sorry about this.

    In the world that Lorenz posits, where prediction markets somehow represent accurate news reporting, either a journalist participates in the market whilst reporting news (conflict of interest), or they don't, and they are bad at their job (and not performing at your job is unethical, I guess?)

  • Are we going to see prediction markets enter mainstream journalism? Taylor Lorenz says yes
  • sorry, what exactly is the dilemma here? how is it an ethical dilemma to have an unethical way to make money?

    I'm guessing what's being said is that in this fictional scenario with an ethically neutral prediction market, you could do insider trading but with fake news? Like, you predict that they will find cheese on the moon, and then you make a story about cheese on the moon.

    Either way, it is a moot point since prediction markets are bunk, ethically or otherwise.

  • Are we going to see prediction markets enter mainstream journalism? Taylor Lorenz says yes

    original link

    “If all of this sounds like a libertarian fever dream, I hear you. But as these markets rise, legacy media will continue to slide into irrelevance.”

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    Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 15th December 2024
  • This is great. The “diaspora” framing makes me want there to be an NPR style public interest story about all this. The emotional core would be about trying to find a place to belong and being betrayed by the people you thought could be your friends, or something.

  • the dead end grift that is lab grown meat
  • We’ve actually already done that. KFC can’t legally call itself kentucky fried chicken anymore because they don’t serve “chicken”. Instead it’s a GMO non-chicken animal that fits all the criteria you mentioned. Open your third eye

  • In which some researchers draw a spooky picture and spook themselves

    Abstracted abstract: >Frontier models are increasingly trained and deployed as autonomous agents, which significantly increases their potential for risks. One particular safety concern is that AI agents might covertly pursue misaligned goals, hiding their true capabilities and objectives – also known as scheming. We study whether models have the capability to scheme in pursuit of a goal that we provide in-context and instruct the model to strongly follow. We evaluate frontier models on a suite of six agentic evaluations where models are instructed to pursue goals and are placed in environments that incentivize scheming.

    I saw this posted here a moment ago and reported it*, and it looks to have been purged. I am reposting it to allow us to sneer at it.

    *

    !

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    Microsoft says EU to blame for the world's worst IT outage
    www.euronews.com Microsoft says EU to blame for the world's worst IT outage

    Up to 8.5 million Windows devices were affected by Friday's IT outage after Crowdstrike's antivirus update went awry.

    Microsoft says EU to blame for the world's worst IT outage

    Kind of sharing this because the headline is a little sensationalist and makes it sound like MS is hard right (they are, but not like this) and anti-EU.

    I mean, they probably are! Especially if it means MS is barred from monopolies and vertical integration.

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    An AI beauty pageant? Miss me with that Miss AI.
    www.forbes.com World’s First AI Pageant To Judge Winner On Beauty And Social Media Clout

    In a contest sponsored by Fanvue, models and influencers crafted from artificial intelligence can now jockey for the title "Miss AI."

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    "The Better Angels of Our Nature" Part 2: Campus Lies, I.Q. Rise & Epstein Ties - If Books Could Kill
    www.buzzsprout.com "The Better Angels of Our Nature" Part 2: Campus Lies, I.Q. Rise & Epstein Ties - If Books Could Kill

    2 Better 2 AngelsSupport us on Patreon:https://www.patreon.com/IfBooksPodWhere to find us: Peter's other podcast, 5-4Mike's other podcast, Maintenance PhaseSources:Jeffrey Epstein’s Science of SleazePinker’s response to Epstein allegationsHow...

    Followup to part 1, which now has a transcript!

    As is tradition, I am posting this link without having listened to it. (too many podcasts)

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    Roko’s Basilisk gets a shoutout on CONAF, hypothetically dooming many unsuspecting listeners to… nothing, basically.
    www.earwolf.com Patton Oswalt Returns - Earwolf

    Comedian and actor Patton Oswalt feels radiant about being Conan O’Brien’s friend.

    Patton Oswalt Returns - Earwolf

    Discussion on AI starts at about 17mins. The Bas(ilisk) drop happens at 20:30. Sorry if ads mess up my time stamps. I think this is the second time it’s come up on the show.

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    A (non-tech) comedy podcast I like covered FTX!
    www.earwolf.com The Collapse of FTX w/ Josiah Johnson - Earwolf

    What’s Poppin’ Con-gregation? This week, Josiah Johnson joins the show to discuss Sam Bankman-Fried, once considered the biggest wunderkind of crypto, establishing his crypto currency exchange only for it to collapse in November 2022.

    The Collapse of FTX w/ Josiah Johnson - Earwolf

    Don't expect a good or deep analysis of FTX or any TREACLESy stuff here.

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    InitialsDiceBearhttps://github.com/dicebear/dicebearhttps://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/„Initials” (https://github.com/dicebear/dicebear) by „DiceBear”, licensed under „CC0 1.0” (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/)SW
    swlabr @awful.systems

    Only Bayes Can Judge Me

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