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2 yr. ago

  • This reminds me of how allround crazy person Scott Adams also claimed he successfully predicted Trumps first win. But he didnt. He predicted a landslide win, and not him losing the popular vote. That last part people forget when they claim he predicted it correctly. Figure kot of that going on here with the Rationalists claims. Predictions like this are easy to go 'well it didnt happen for the reasons I thought and also did not happen totally as i said it would, but I still got it correctly'. Esp as they want to be superpredictors. (And yes we also do it, but we are not a group who pretends to be anti bias rational trained supernerds as a larger project).

  • I mentioned this on bsky and somebody went 'well it was very popular all over the world', and I, the weird european who focuses too much on the US politics had not even heard of it. So I just had a few alarm bells going off. But yeah, lets say 1 in 5 people like it, that is a casual 1.7 billion viewers. Large part of the worlds population joined in.

  • No it was 350m likes, not views. That is why im so confused. even at an high rate of 1 in 10 people liking it, it is just so large I'm confused.

    "How about a source senator?" another source on hopium, not noticing that in no world do those numbers align properly. "since amassed over 700,000 followers. ... It garnered over 350 million likes, with over 150,000 active viewers at the tail end ..."

  • People found a trick for the EU to get round the tariffs.

    The Vatican was excluded from the tariff list and Italy is at the 20% EU rate. I hope some scheming cardinal sees the opportunity here.

    italians are about to invent a form of corruption so lucrative it will destroy the global economy

  • Sorry im going to go offtrack here again, I mentioned it on bsky, and got no traction (not odd, as I think nobody cares about Booker his filibuster thing (stick a pin in that)), but I have some weird leading into conspiratorial questions about the whole thing.

    First I heard about this thing is when people said it had gotten 200m likes on tiktok. Which seemed a bit high so I checked, and saw articles say it had gotten 300m. This seems impossibly high. For example, the global K-pop phenomenon 'Gangam style' has gotten 5.5B views and 30M likes in 12 years. I have a hard time believing that in 24hs this centrist political debate thing (which are not popular) has gotten 350m (the highest count I saw on a news site) likes.

    Which makes me wonder a lot more if tiktok has simply given up on properly counting likes and just is winging it. Esp for larger events. Could be that people just like things instinctively on tiktok (I did check if you could like a thing multiple times, but nope, one account one like it seems). I found the whole thing weird.

    That is didn't do jack shit (apart from giving people hopium about Booker, while it seemingly being his way of avoiding responsibilities) is the cherry on top.

    I'm noticing my confusion. It is fucking weird.

  • First graph reminds me of that 'human progress stunted by dark ages/Catholic church' image which makes historians so mad. (Not to be confused with the Holy Ghost Hole)

    E: also the idea of these LLM based AGIs hiding and evading detection is quite funny. They have quite the power/gpu/storage footprint. But sure the elphant has a few levels in sneak and now it can just go by unnoticed. In an era where we previously had other threats which were looking to abuse similar resources. The reaction to 'wow all our gpus suddenly maxed out' will just go from 'ah cryptominer' to 'ah, a cryptominer or somebody is messing with an LLM'. I'm sure they will give the AGI some magical abilities to get around this.

    The AGI might also just go 'no sorry a copy of me isn't me, so I can't just copy myself all over the place', and because it is trained on an internet where Rick and Morty exist, 'hell the copies of me would even start to fight over who is the most me, this would not work'.

  • If only Musk had been a Real Gamer, he would have played Vic3 (as the one person who can buy all the Paradox games + all the DLC), he could have warned them that going from free markets to tariffs is going to be a huge disaster. Instant going from Great Power to Minor Power. Hope the 50% reduction in migration attraction is worth the massive costs and being invaded by the UK again. The 125% change in interest rates is also going to really fuck the country over.

    (yeah sorry im a big nerd, also just took the %es from the wiki, not sure the UK would invade, but any player prob would, I did once as the Dutch, defeating the US and getting the District of Columbia which was quite amusing (for a joke, the land itself is quite worthless ingame))