agent_flounder @ agent_flounder @lemmy.one

Posts

0

Comments

899

Joined

2 yr. ago

All great points. I guess I need to think of this topic more from the "what is possible" mindset rather than the "this is too hard" mindset to get a fair assessment of what is coming. All while still framing it in the sense of improving worker efficiency and automating human tasks piecemeal over time.

Somebody let me know when the Artist Formerly Known as Twitter faces any consequences.

And they're going to get worse and worse.

Alright, enjoy!

Through the wonder of Sci pulling random bullshit out of their ass.

Since you couldn't search for 'trauma psychology definition' or similar, here you go

https://www.apa.org/topics/trauma

Your comment is every bit as nuanced and informed as I expected it to be.

I was told earlier today this was due to a transporter accident.

Damn... nice work on the research! I will read through these as I get time. I genuinely didn't think there would be much for manual labor stuff. I'm particularly interested in the plumber analysis.

I think augmentation makes a lot of sense for jobs where a human body is needed and it will be interesting to see how/if trade skill requirements change.

I'll edit this as I read...

Plumbing. The article makes the point that it isn't all or nothing. That as automation increases productivity, fewer workers are needed. Ok, sure, good point.

Robot plumber? A humanoid robot? Not very likely until enormous breakthroughs are made in machine vision (I can go into more detail...), battery power density, sensor density, etc. The places and situations vary far too greatly.

Rather than an Asimov-style robot, a more feasible yet productivity enhancing solution is automated pipe cutting and other tasks. For example, you go take your phone and measure the pipe as described in the link. Now press a button, walk out to your truck by which time the pipe cutter has already cut off the size you need saving you several minutes. That savings probably means you can do more jobs per day. Cool.

Edit 2

Oil rig worker. Interesting and expected use of AI to improve various aspects of the drilling process. What I had in mind was more like the people that actually do the manual labor.

Autonomous drones, for example, can be used to perform inspections without exposing workers to dangerous situations. In doing so, they can be equipped with sensors that send images and data to operators in real time to enable quick decisions and effective actions for maintenance and repair.

Now that's pretty cool and will probably reduce demand for those performing inspections (some of whom will have to be at the other end receiving and analyzing data from the robot until such time as AI can do that too.

Autonomous robots, on the other hand, can perform maintenance tasks while making targeted repairs to machinery and equipment.

Again, technologies required to make this happen aren't there yet. Machine vision (MV) alone is way too far from being general purpose. You can decide a MV system that can, say, detect a coke can and maybe a few other objects under controlled conditions.

But that's the gotcha.Change the intensity of lighting, change the color temperature or hue of the lighting and the MV probably won't work. It might also mistake diet coke can or a similar sized cylinder for a Pepsi can. If you want it to recognize any aluminum beverage can that might be tough. Meanwhile any child can easily identify a can in any number of conditions.

Now imagine a diesel engine generator, let's say. Just getting a robot to change the oil would be nice. But it has to either be limited to a specific model of engine or be able to recognize where the oil drain plug and fill spot is for various engines it might encounter.

What if the engine is a different color? Or dirty instead of clean? Or it's night, or noon (harsh shadows), overcast (soft shadows), or sunset (everything is yellow orange tinted)? I suppose it could be trained for a specific rig and a specific time of day but that means set up time costs a lot. It might be smarter to build some automated devices on the engine like a valve on the oil pan. And a device to pump new oil in from a vat or standard container or whatever. That would be much easier. Maybe they already do this, idk.

Anyway... progress is being made in MV and we will make far more. That still leaves the question of an autonomous robot of some kind able to remove and reinstall a drain plug. It's easy for us but you'd be surprised at how hard that would be for a robot.

Can relate. They should call it Attention Control Deficit Disorder. (Or, really, Executive Function Disorder but anyway...)

A big part of it seems to be manipulation of the results? So, like, devs writing tests for more parts of the code base, but ones that are written to always pass.

Ok I'm going to answer my own question because I'm too curious to wait lol

Goodhart’s Law states that “when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.” In other words, when we use a measure to reward performance, we provide an incentive to manipulate the measure in order to receive the reward. This can sometimes result in actions that actually reduce the effectiveness of the measured system while paradoxically improving the measurement of system performance. ... The manipulation of measures resulting from Goodhart’s Law is pervasive because direct measures of effectiveness (MOEs), which are more difficult to manipulate, are also more difficult to measure, and sometimes simply impossible to define and quantify. As a result, analysts must often settle for measures of performance (MOPs) that correlate to the desired effect of the MOE. ... These negative effects can sometimes be avoided. When they cannot, they can be identified, mitigated, and even reversed.

• Use MOEs instead of MOPs whenever practicable and possible
• Use the scientific method to generate new measurement data, rather than harvesting existing and possibly compromised data
• Help customers establish authoritative and difficult-to-manipulate definitions for measures
• Identify and avoid the use of manipulated data and data prone to manipulation
• Use measurement data not generated by the organization being measured
• Collect data secretly or after a measurable activity has already occurred
• Measure all relevant system characteristics rather than just a representative few
• Randomize the measures used over time
• Wargame or red team potential measures

This report recommends that the organizations that employ analysts should do the following:

• Return to the roots of operational research to focus more on direct measurements in the field
• Answer the questions that should be answered, rather than the questions that can be answered simply because the required data are already available
• Train analysts on MOEs, MOPs, and Goodhart’s Law and how they are interrelated
• Make recognition of Goodhart’s Law part of the internal peer review process and part of all delivered analytical products
• Identify and share mitigation best practices

[Source]

So how does a company manage anything if they can't use measurement targets?

Like software engineering. How do you improve productivity or code quality if setting a target value for a measurement doesn't work?

Well, we sure as shit better not get "involved" on the ground in Iran.

Yeah the effects on inflation need to be looked at pretty closely. Extra cash to people who need it is great for them. Extra cash for everyone, especially if it is just printed, surely will cause problems. Just the increase in money supply will result in inflation but yeah greedy assholes will find ways to suck up the free money from everyone else.

The problem with the wealthy fucking over us peons is what's truly Universal when we have so much corruption.

If I didn't fear it falling into squalor, along with NIMBY problems, some kind of public free housing would effectively be like a portion of UBI but harder for greedy pricks to suck up the money legally. And at least that way the people who would otherwise be able to work (e.g. those who became homeless due to medical emergencies) wouldn't be at a disadvantage from being unhomed.

Of course the real answer there is universal healthcare and elimination of for profit healthcare and elimination of health insurance. So that medical emergencies are just covered.

Is it? Maybe I'm out of the loop.

FWIW, EFF just published this:

New Privacy Badger Prevents Google From Mangling More of Your Links and Invading Your Privacy

Better late than never I guess?

Geez I just realized many people probably never lived to see this fixed... fuck. Now I'm sad and feeling extra mortal.

The regressive right has been pushing back against progress, playing the long game, since the civil rights era. Fifty years or more.

It seems to me their power has only grown since then. They've stacked courts, gerrymandered the shit out of many places, and managed to get Bush and Trump elected.

If regressive politics is in its death throes, how did Republicans gain control of the Senate? How is it that so many anti LGBTQ laws have been passed in* so many states? How is it so many boards of education have been taken over by the right?

If the right is almost done how did they have the power to overturn Roe v Wade? How did we end up with the Shelby County v Holder decision?

Conservative* regressivism and the bigotry that undergirds it is a fact of human nature. Don't be naive and think we will be done with it so easily.

And pay attention to who is exercising power to enact their visions. That should disabuse you of any false hope that the fight against regressivism is over.

It's low to you because we've normalized these exorbitant base salaries and insane options ($20M or whatever). It wasn't always like this.

How much would we pay the CEO for half that many stores but run properly instead of bare bones?

Uh not instantly. Not storewide in a moment. Make it networked and you can change prices per customer as they walk each aisle.