Lovely_sombrero [he/him] @ Lovely_sombrero @hexbear.net

Posts

67

Comments

687

Joined

5 yr. ago

Ford stops car shipments to China from Michigan and Kentucky.

In April, ~80 cargo ships are "blank sailing" so far, while around 50 were at the height of Covid. So more cargo ships have either cancelled their scheduled travel entirely, or are at least skipping ports than at any point during Covid.

Trump did something to fuck with the student loan system, I completely forget what it was. Anyway, student loan defaults spiked 289%.

Even not withdrawing, but making it so that the deal has to be renewed every year (like the Obama admin did it) would be the same as the deal not existing, since no one would want to do business with Iran, if sanctions can just suddenly be put back on and you lose what you spent the last 11 months building.

Amazing land, great people, you know actually Canada is a disgrace.

Teslas are really made like smartphones. Oh, someone hit your bumper? The repair cost is 50% of what you paid for your new car.

Line down

WE'VE GOT THE PERFECT PLAY, WATCH THIS!!!

He is calling for a revolt of the elites and the PMC lol. The hundred millionaire march.

I will check it out, thanks!

"creditor on creditor violence"

I'd absolutely watch that show!

Oh, I'm looking! I love Cathie. I was talking about the CLO business specifically.

Ah, I will read it, thanks. I clicked on your post right as you wrote it.

Damn, so there is extra bullshit on top of bullshit that I already don't fully understand. That is awesome. I'm guessing that the banks don't really care about the new "super senior" stuff, since this time (unlike 2008) they don't own anything in the chain, once they sell the CLO to a pension fund the banks are no longer at risk from any side of the equation. And that is assuming that private equity didn't already squeeze everything out of the company before it goes bankrupt, like selling its assets and real estate and then doing lease-back for it.

Thanks for the info, it sucks!

[edit]

Goldman Sachs lifted its default projections for US loan borrowers sharply last week, anticipating a 12-month trailing default rate of 8 per cent for leveraged loan issuers by the end of this year — up sharply from a previous estimate of 3.5 per cent.

That is huge! O_o

A jump above that 7.5 per cent ceiling could flip protective switches within CLOs

Ah! I guess this is new?

Yes! But also, I was being sarcastic. The first graph isn't sales, but "prices paid", meaning that there is less stuff being sold, but the stuff that is being sold is being sold at higher prices (giving stagflation vibes).

Yea, me too.

Damn, awesome timing! Thanks.

More recently, they’ve become a big hit with retail investors, thanks to the Federal Reserve’s rate increases since 2022 juicing the returns of their floating-rate loans.

Retail just loves piling into stupid investments, that is amazing. How do they even know about this? Are there celebrity ETF managers out there? Does ETF have its own Cathie Wood or Elon Musk?

The underlying bonds inside an ETF are not priced real time

Yea, this article talks about ETFs trading at a discount, but what are the mechanics of the CLOs they hold? When do those get revalued, I'm guessing only after the bankruptcy proceedings (when they happen) are done and it is precisely known how much money was lost inside the specific CLO and they have to be revalued, or do the banks just do it whenever they feel like it? Because even if the company is no longer paying back its insane adjustable-rate loan, everyone probably presumes that they will get the full value of the loan back in bankruptcy (lol), right?

It is possible that the bar does indeed go down

Is anyone here who is good at economic bullshit? Lots of companies ran by private equity have gone bankrupt recently and I'm sure more will go bankrupt now because of the tariffs (and because bankrupting companies is their entire business model). So when does that start effecting the underlying securities, like CLOs - securities that contain these toxic loans and were mostly bought up by ETFs and big pension funds everywhere? When the real estate market started weakening in 2007, it took over a year for the banks to start revaluing the underlying securities.

Is this good?

The Saudis just don't want all of their oil infrastructure destroyed if the US invades Iran.

Elon then presented the "finished product" at the set of Desperate Housewives lol.

So? I like to go to my happy place at least once per year, and so does he. He is just a normal guy.

I think the initial idea is so bad that engineers have a hard problem working around that. Stainless steel should make it easier to use in cold & hot situations, so they can save weight on the heat shield (and it is already very heavy), but now they have rupturing fuel lines and engines.