Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden
Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden
A new set of Times/Siena polls, including one with The Philadelphia Inquirer, reveal an erosion of support for the president among young and nonwhite voters upset about the economy and Gaza.
I dislike doubting polls, but there's just some odd stuff in here.
- 10% go for RFK Jr, and it's equal siphoning from both parties? 10%?!
- 20% more people blame Biden for Roe being overturned than Trump?
- They're TIED with Gen Z voters? TIED?!
- After the absolute thrashing that Republicans have received on abortion, only like 50% of women would break for Biden?
This is a poll of just the 5 key states, but this part of their methodology gives me significant pause as well: "To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. "
Emphasis mine. There could be a huge skew. And these results don't make sense. The other NYT poll from several months ago was also incredibly unusual and had very weird findings -- to the point that the Guardian wrote something was very fucky with the results.
This isn't to say this can't be what's going on, but we need corroboration from other polling groups. And it isn't summer yet, which makes polls rather inaccurate too.
TLDR: Something's fucky, we need more information and to monitor this.
EDIT: I just want to use my bully pulpit here to say that my criticisms by no means disprove the poll results. There's oddities, but that doesn't make the results an impossibility. Don't only give credence to criticism of polls. If someone has reasons they believe the poll is accurate, you should give equal attention to it. At the end of the day, we don't know what the actual truth is, and we won't until the election is over. Just remember that we don't want to just win, we want to dominate. We want massive margins. And that means we need to see wins even in less than accurate polls.
I voted for Clinton with a funeral dirge in my heart at an empty polling place. Then I voted for Biden.
I despise Neoliberals. I'm a socialist. If I can swallow my pride and volunteer to be fucked with no lube instead of being hit by a fascist freight train yet again, you can too.
That said, this country is over, Rejecting the Reagan giveaway was the last chance to begin righting this ship now halfway under water from decades of celebrated antisocial avarice made legal. I'm voting Biden to minimize needless cruelty and scapegoating of vulnerable groups as we collapse from capitalist greed rot and firesale. That is the extent of our vote's power as our owners bought both parties on economic policy allegiance decades ago, so be kind with it.
We don't need to collapse AND have our chosen Nero in the white house using their bully pulpit to blame it on everyone from undocumented immigrants to pregnant women to lgbtq, etc and getting them murdered in the streets for what Wall Street profiteers, safe in their guarded towers and luxury bunkers, have wrought.
The impending food shortages and mass homelessness crises will be bad enough.
40% of voters are Gen Z or Millenial...
Throw in Gen X and it's the majority
I wish the DNC started treated them as the main chunk of Dem voters and not a bunch of spoiled children for wanting politicians that represent them instead of their grandparents
It should be comically easy to beat trump, but people just don't like elderly neoliberals, because of their policies, actions, and often lack of actions.
I've said it before and I'll keep saying it again and again; of course you don't like the Democrat candidate; but you've got to swallow your damned medicine or the outcome will be exponentially worse.
Yeah, I voted for Hillary. I hate her so goddamn much. But you know who I hate more? The orange asshole. So I did what I had to do, I swallowed my anger and voted for the bitch. No protest vote, no skipping out on it, just sucking it up and doing what had to be done. If more people had followed my example, and the example of many others, we wouldn't be rapidly watersliding dowe the lubed-up slope to outright, unapologetic fascism.
This is extremely concerning, not just because of the reality, but the reaction to this news. We should all be terrified, not because young people are too stupid to vote against Republicans, but because Democrats are blaming voters for their fuckups. This is the same fucking bullshit Hillary pulled in 2016, and it's why she shat the bed so hard and left us with the Cheeto Mussolini.
IT'S THE CANDIDATE'S JOB TO WIN VOTES!!
Joe Biden isn't a reluctant general lifted out of obscurity by the adoring masses. He wanted this job, fought really hard to get it, and now it is his responsibility to win reelection. And it's really important that he does, because Trump was a terrible president and will be worse the second time around.
If you're mad about this news story, you should direct your anger at the party and the candidate. Being mad at Gen Z for choosing not to fall in line is like being mad at drivers in traffic. Sure, if we all slow down and leave more space to avoid excessive braking, we can avoid a lot of traffic and have more time to sing kumbaya together. That's not a productive avenue for fixing the problem.
Donald Trump is literally on trial for fraud. This shouldn't even be close. If Biden can't win in a landslide, it's because Joe Biden sucks, not because the youth are entitled, bourgeois, ignorant, lazy, or any of the other insults being thrown around in this comment thread.
New York Times doing its thing again
Presenting the poll results for registered voters, with candidates limited to Biden or Trump with no RFK involved, both of which are decisions which will swing things towards Trump and away from reality, is a decision that I'm hard pressed to explain any other way than that they're looking for the worst numbers they can present.
It's not even like the answers to the more accurate question were even any better for Biden. To me they look more or less the same (i.e. serious trouble for Biden). My only explanation is that a lot of these likely voters don't know their ass from their elbow (e.g.
Oooooh
This is interesting.
Look at the question "What one issue is most important in deciding your vote this November?"
It leads off with:
- The economy (including jobs and the stock market)
- Inflation and the cost of living
- Abortion
- Immigration
- Crime
- Gun policies
... and then, way down below, is "The state of democracy/corruption" (with 6% still bucking the trend to vote for it), and "The Middle East/Israel/Palestinians" (2%).
Lo and behold, a whole lot of people voted for one of the first two options, and also tended to answer questions about how they felt about the economy overall, and whether they felt overall happy with how things were going, accordingly.
I would be interested to see how this poll was presented exactly (especially whether written or verbal, and what order for the questions), and what the numbers would be if there was a similar weight of questioning and emphasis given to "The state of democracy/corruption" as a major issue. Maybe the results would be the same. Maybe not. I'd be interested to see it.
(Edit: Someone else sussed it out better than I did; their methodology was actually much worse and more explicitly slanted than that.)
The system is old and ossified. No one on the left, save for progressives, seems interested in shaking things up. It's too bad, I would have rather had a leftwing populist revolution. At least workers would get paid fairly...but this is backwards-ass America so, instead, we'll get what we deserve.
We live in the worst timeline.
Enjoy Trump dumbasses.
The president has little say on the laws that Congress passes. Vote for your local senators and representatives! The only way to realize change is to vote in your local elections!
It is local and state government that is important to making changes! Republicans have figured this out decades ago and have been gerrymandering and packing courts for decades.
The president can’t waive a magic wand and make any change he wants.
Permanently Deleted
American-Muslims should not vote for Biden. Will Muslims vote for a professed Zionist? Also, Americans see the US has no business in other countries, and the man openly admitted in smug speeches he wants to tell everybody else on the planet what their politics should be. Why do rich people want to pay more taxes just to spend it in rabbit holes? Don't give Joe Biden any more of your money. The federal government has too much power. Federal power needs to be scaled back. I think Americans are done with elitism. One thing Trump isn't, he is not an elitist, or a warmonger. Joe Biden has proven he is a foreign asset, gives away taxpayer money to his international bosses, foments conflict, and the Intentional Court Of Justice should look into genocide charges against Joe Biden. I believe he is a war criminal and a liar. I can see why people like Joe Biden hate "make America great" because they are globalist, and seem to care more about meddling in the politics of the world, pleasing foreign donors.
'I am a Zionist': How Joe Biden's lifelong bond with Israel shapes war policy | Reuters - https://www.reuters.com/world/us/i-am-zionist-how-joe-bidens-lifelong-bond-with-israel-shapes-war-policy-2023-10-21/