What would be the political effect of St Petersburg declaring independence from Russia?
Assume these joined St. Petersburg:
Murmansk Oblast Republic of Karelia Leningrad Oblast Pskov Oblast Novgorod Oblast
It would likely be the end of Russia as a country.
The conquering of St. Petersburg was central to the modern formation of the Russian identity. After that, the lands were made integral to Russia. A post-Soviet Russia would never allow such a key part of the country to break away.
A post-Russian Eurasia would likely see at least four independent countries; potentially more. The eastern part of Russia would likely fall into China's sphere of influence immediately without much resistance from the rest of the world.
I'll admit that I am not super into internal Russian politics, but is there a reason for these areas to want to leave Russia?
Being a part of Russia should be reason enough /s
Memes aside, I would be more interested in the potential of central and eastern regions leaving Russia - the parts that were historically populated by various indigenous peoples before being forcibly included into the Russian empire.
There's certainly parts of Russia that have separatist sentiments. Can't say I'm aware of any overwhelming separatist sentiment in that region though.
Right after the "Crimea referendum", some guys in Saint-Petersburg tried to start a referendum for the independence of the North-West, and got majorly fucked for treason. Guess the "democracy" wasn't a democracy enough
I don't know of a political movement yet, but I would guess the following:
Not a single one.
| Region | Population |
|---|---|
| Murmansk Oblast | 667,744 |
| Republic of Karelia | 533,121 |
| Leningrad Oblast | 2,000,997 |
| Pskov Oblast | 599,084 |
| Novgorod Oblast | 583,387 |
| Saint Petersburg | 5,601,911 |
| Total | 9,986,244 |
Russia has a population of 146,028,325, of which this would be 6.8%. These are tremendously-disproportionate numbers; the 10 million here would be about a quarter Ukraine's prewar population. My expectation---without trying to do a deeper analysis looking at what military hardware might wind up in the hands of the seceding oblasts---is that absent other changes in Russia, or political unwillingness to fight against seceding oblasts, or outside direct involvement, there would be a civil war and the resources of the other 93% would most-likely defeat them and re-extend control over them.
That might have a risk of nuclear civil war, depending upon how the military acts and what control of the arsenal looks like. The prospect of nuclear war amongst ex-member states of the Soviet Union was a principal concern of the US about the time that the Soviet Union broke up.
EDIT: Updated numbers to reflect the fact that Saint Petersburg isn't part of Leningrad Oblast.
that feel when leningrad doesnt even want to be st petersburg anymore
I am from SPb, ant it would be cool.
With all the general closeness, I absolutely can see Saint-Petersburg and the region being a separate country with close ties (no-visa, EU member?) with Nordic and Baltic countries.
But I guess it's not happening, and by writing the things above I became a terrorist, "promoting rebellion and dissolution of the Russian state"