Adapting agriculture to climate catastrophes: the nuclear winter case
Adapting agriculture to climate catastrophes: the nuclear winter case
Radware Bot Manager Captcha
Abstract
Following a nuclear war, destruction would extend well beyond the blast zones due to the onset of a nuclear winter that can devastate the biosphere, including agriculture. Understanding the damage magnitude and preparing for the folly of its occurrence are critical given current geopolitical tensions. We developed and applied a framework to simulate global crop production under a nuclear winter using the Cycles agroecosystem model, incorporating ultraviolet (UV)-B radiation effects on plant growth and adaptive selection of crop maturity types (shorter cycle the lower the temperature). Using maize (Zea maize L.) as a sentinel crop, we found that annual maize production could decline from 7% after a small-scale regional nuclear war with 5 Tg soot injection, to 80% after a global nuclear war with 150 Tg soot injection, with recovery taking from 7 to 12 years. UV-B damage would peak 6–8 years post-war and can further decrease annual maize production by 7%. Over the recovery period, adaptive selection of maize maturity types to track changing temperatures could increase production by 10% compared to a no-adaptation strategy. Seed availability may become a critical adaptation bottleneck; this and prior studies might underestimate food production declines. We propose that adaptation must include the development of Agricultural Resilience Kits consisting of region- and climate-specific seed and technology packages designed to buffer against uncertainty while supply chains recover. These kits would be congenial with the transient conditions during the recovery period, and would also be applicable to other catastrophes affecting food production.
Prepping for nuclear winter seems like little more than a fun distraction at this point considering 90% to 95% of arable land globally is going to be depleted by 2050 and we're going to be 40% over capacity globally on fresh water by 2030. And not to mention we're still breaking global heat records at breakneck speed so a Blue Ocean Event is imminent too.
Enjoy the last of the abundance folks, it's not going to last much longer.
One of my expected sentinel events is diesel rationing. That's going to have an immediate effect on industrialized agriculture and transport. Fertilizer taxes on Russia and Belorussia are also not a particularly smart move at this point.
It beggars belief how fast things are unravelling. And how few notice.
People just don't want to know how precarious their reality is, I think that's why so many otherwise rational people believe in 11th hour, magic physics-defying 'science' saving the world (and rewriting human nature), and refuse to contemplate otherwise.
There's nothing we can do anyway I suppose, so at least most people can enjoy their ignorance while it lasts. It's painful seeing pregnancies and children though, the future in store for those kids is very bleak.