Jason Hickel on Tariffs

likely to resort to violence [...] to hold onto power
Oh good, then we can crush them without remorse. I do so love unambiguous villains.

What’s wild about the Trump tariffs is that they are not coupled with any industrial policy or public investment strategy that could plausibly deliver US re-industrialization. The result is that the tariffs will likely accelerate US industrial decline and general economic degradation.
It is truly fascinating to watch. Trump has so thoroughly purged socialist ideas from his economics departments, and has ensured such absolute hegemony of neocon principles, that his administration is incapable of conceptualizing and implementing even basic industrial policy that could deliver on the Executive Branch’s own stated goals.
Total self-delusion. The billionaire ruling class has no idea what to do, they are completely adrift. And this is dangerous because they are likely to resort to violence and geopolitical bullying in a desperate dying bid to hold onto power.

Currently the best way to bring back industrial potential is to create state owned enterprises and have your own four year plan to either grow your SOE or establish infrastructure for private companies.
Oh, and, devalue the shit out of the USD if you want any kind of private investment.

I think a better way to "reindustrialize" would be making wages paid to any domestically employed employee's wage, who isn't in the executive class, tax deductible, all coupled with a tax hike on corporations, assuming there's a workplace shortage.

wait this isnt Jackson hinkle

It's like hijacking a plane pre-9/11. Everyone knew you just followed along because the hijackers wanted something. Then 9/11 happened and hijacking the plane WAS what they wanted.
Tarriffs pre-Trump always were to pressure a change in some policy. Then Trump came along and tarriffs were the policy. But instead of World Trade Center collapsing, it is now just World Trade.
- the only issue I take with this analogy is the comparison of an awful person that will kill millions to some terrorists.
  
  It is like 9/11 but in the sense of the entire law book going out the door by using the excuse of "combating terrorism" and ending up where we are now.
  Back when the Patriot act was laudly applauded and institutions like ICE were deployed to violate laws people knew this was going to be the end station.
- That's, actually, a very insightful way of putting it. It genuinely seems to be like that.

Tariff policies are coupled with betting on stock markets. And so far the profits are bloody insane!

It’s not even that it wasn’t coupled with a public investment strategy, but it was coupled with trying to get rid of existing investments like the CHIPS act that are desperately needed.
I would say this was sabotage if it didn’t reek of pure incompetence. What else would you expect from a man that bankrupts casinos.
- There's a certain type of person that is actually willing to shrink the pie as long as they get the largest part of it. You can criticise neoliberals for a lot (and you should), but their stated goal was to grow the economy and lift all boats that way. Obviously they ended up creating a system where most boats had holes in them, but they did lift the tide.
  Trump is going to shrink the world economy, but him and his friends will end up owning an even bigger part (percentage wise) of US assets than anyone before. It's basically going to turn into post-communist Russia. Trump is the Yeltsin figure, the American Putin is waiting in the wings somewhere.
  
  Trump is the Yeltsin figure, the American Putin is waiting in the wings somewhere.
  I am pretty sure that hopeful dick bag is wringing his hands in plain sight attempting to dismantle everything already.

All of that ignores this is happening intentionally
- I have a very hard time believing that the super wealthy are some mega conspiracy masterminds, and not just some greedy morons who self-destructive because they can't see past next quarter's profits.
  
  The most rational explanation I have heard is that they are just well dressed hoarders. Acquiring more wealthy is an attempt to smother the bad feelings with the pleasure of "success". But the pleasure of success is fleeting and the goal posts move every time. So they keep chasing "success" and hoarding wealth to make the bad feelings go away. But that will never heal their emotional issues, so they will never stop.
- I recently tend to think they are actually at their wits' end.
  
  A few of them might be, but politics are like fines--inconsequential to the super rich. The disgustingly wealthy can just bail when things get bad. And if sabotaging an entire nation gets them more money in the next quarter, they'll do it.
  
  It’s not a mystery at all. It’s dark enlightenment that they proudly espouse whenever they can. Destroy the state and have a bunch of tech bro kings with little kingdoms.
  
  Phase 2 - annexation of other countries, or parts thereof - is yet to start. Surely that would serve to quieten the home front, not to mention to make the rich even richer, by an awful lot. Hell, we'll get to see the world's first trillionaire for sure.
- Mental gymnastics to avoid the obvious, its baffling
  
  If they just saved their brainpower for improving things instead of trying to reconcile their broken world views, we’d have fixed these problems by now.
  Contrarianism is one of the biggest sins of the Republican party.
  
  Is it really gymnastics to see incompetence as a more likely explanation than malice?

Just like the NAZIS.
Because this regime and all associated with it are NAZIS.
Time to start calling them what they are and preparing to deal with them the only way that NAZIS are to be dealt with.
- I feel like even that is giving them too much credit. They're like wannabe Nazis, but not even smart enough to nationalize steel and auto industries.
  Not forgiving the Nazis anything, and most of the "nationalization" amounted to confiscation of private (I think frequently Jewish) property. They were a hundred percent anti-socialist, but I guess they had one or two real economists floating around, so they didn't completely shoot themselves in the foot economically, like the Americans under Trump seem to be doing.
  
  Nazis did Gleichschaltung, which wasn’t as much about owning, but about control. They centralized stuff, subverted and merged organizations. But indeed they also expropriate a couple of groups and looted other countries. That usually became national or party property. But people also took stuff for themselves. And they also destroyed property … like book burnings. The Nazis didn’t do well economically. It was part of their plan to loot and exploit other countries. German economy became most efficient when there were already fights on German soil, which means they didn’t work as efficiently as possible before that. England did a lot better due to having John Maynard Keynes on their side.
  
  The nazis privatized a lot of things, save for public healthcare, which is pretty much the only thing the right talks about in case when they need to prove "the national socialists were in fact, socialists" somehow.

That "likely" is doing extremely heavy lifting there. That's akin to saying "it's likely the sun will rise in the east in the morning."

Yup that sounds right
Next comes the blue wave reaction in midterms. Trump's policies continue to fail, but MAGA persists. Liberals get suckered into thinking electoral politics will save them.
Then the '28 election gets "stolen" (thanks to their utter failure to govern responsibly), Trump refuses to leave, and things break down from there. He'll probably get talked into actually letting states secede if they try, they've just gotta be the last guy to talk to him before he goes in front of the media (I won't say press anymore because his pool is not journalists). Boom, policy.
Of course, secession would be incredibly stupid of any governor to try. But those are the people he's putting in power while he threatens the rest with the Feds.
Dark times coming people
- A lot depends on how far the Supreme Court lets the Trump administration go with blatant law breaking. The veneer of system unity across multiple branches of government would give them a much better chance of avoiding '28 elections entirely, but if they are faced with the choice of following at least some critical laws or abandoning the veneer of lawfulness, it really increases the chances of a "divided they fall" scenario.
  It also depends on whether MAGA coalesces around a successor. Factions with different visions of government have agreed to work together with Trump as a figurehead. If they don't path to Trump term three, the successor selection is another opportunity for internal infighting to break their grip on power.
  Scary times, and horrible unnecessary suffering for huge numbers of people on the way, but I still see hope to come out of it without the country disbanding.
  
  I don't think the Supreme Court has any power to stop this train. They've arrested a judge and a mayor now and they've threatened the Justices. Like, this is BIG DICTATOR SHIT.
  The Federal Government is gonna keep suffering the termite infestation till the whole thing effectively crumbles. Then the Christian Nationalists get what they really want - Confederacy 2, and the Technocrats start their project in earnest on the West Coast.
  The Feds will conveniently ignore Southern seccessionists.
  It's a good point about the successor, I've seen these people get swept up by any demagogue who trots by. My money is they push states rights eventually and say fuck the liberals entirely, they'll build their little ethnostate. Somewhere.
- If California were somehow allowed to secede peacefully, I think their economy is strong enough that they could survive independently. Pretty much any other state though, I don’t see how it could work.
  
  California could. New York could until the city is completely underwater, but it wouldn't have to, New England will band together more or less. They'll do okay, Canada will probably offer to protect them, if they dont join completely. Like I said, I see the Bible Belt turning into Confederacy 2. A Mormon state might erupt around Utah. Hilariously, I'd expect most of the border states to join Mexico, after a good quarrel.
  Flyover states... idk but I wish you luck
- Dark times are already here.
  
  I mean, yes, but not widespread starvation and disease amidst civil war. This is still the early stage of collapse. The overture setting the themes for the rest of the show.
- China and Russia eat popcorn.
- States declaring independence is actually a good idea. They can have their own immigration and tariff policy
  
  An independent American fascist state with half of the American nuclear arsenal and an open endorsement of white supremacy and Christofascist crusade rhetoric is not a good idea.
  It might end up being the best option, and that is fucking terrifying.
  
  Do you want a Bible Belt with its own army? I don't, and I live here.

"Fascinating to watch"
Buddy millions will die...
- Tragedy is fascinating. Aristotle knew it, every actor since knows it, historians know it.
- The right ones will die if everyone ARMS UP and accepts that we are dealing with NAZIS.
  
  And they are the Dumb ones.
- Yeah, it's like a traffic accident.

That's what they mean when they say fascism is capitalism in decline.
- I'd argue that fascism is itself a collapse state.

Canada needs to prepare for war... against America of all fucking places.
Please just eat yourselves and leave us alone.

It always makes me so happy to see Jason on here. He was one of the TAs in my anthro program in college.
- Thats so cool actually wtf

US elects a socialist > the man gets re-elected three times
Lesson learned: We must never get close to implementing social policies!
- FDR wasn't a socialist. He wasn't even a social democrat by any standard but US-brain rot.
  
  Government providing jobs to the unemployed, minimum wage, labor laws, social security... Blocked by the Republicans and a bunch of red Democrats when he wanted to do more...
  I'm saying he's a socialist as he was in favour of government intervention to help the population, he wasn't a communist and might have been a social-liberal, it's still on the socialist spectrum.

There is a lot of damage to industrialization hopes. Tariffs on metals, lumber, gypsum hurts building and manufacturing. Energy (solar and batteries) tariffs not only means higher energy input costs for industry, it's yet another immediate cost of living increase for people, and an unsustainable planet is a worse cost of living increase/quality of life decrease.
There does seem to be an industrial policy to militarize AI, and monopolize data centers to US, through politicized investment funds, but they are not getting the quo pro their quid, and limiting the world to US controlled data centers is certain to make them prefer/wait for Chinese tech to catch up.
Retaliation, undermining, and boycotts is going to mean less production and less jobs and less income to afford consumption at higher prices. War on Universities doesn't help future. Forcing kids to replace immigrant labour instead of school focus is anti-future.
- Well they want a future of control, even if it means giving up geopolitical hegemony

Biden was doing industrial policy to bring in manufacturing, so naturally Trump abandoned it.
(I wonder what the d-d-democrats bad people thought about the post before I said that. It's Republicans that don't want to.)

Not that neo-liberal is wrong, but for stupid people it puts blame on Democrates. Just like democracy is a Democrat idea, liberty is liberal, and to conserve is to be a conservative.
- it puts blame on Democrates
  I knew it was that Greek bastard Democrates.
- You may want to learn the name of the ruling party of Germany 100 years ago and see what a party names itself and what ideals it presents are such a perfect match.