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Bulletins and News Discussion from April 28th to May 4th, 2025 - Competent Fascism? - COTW: El Salvador

Image is from the Britannica article on CECOT, known as the Terrorism Confinement Center in English.

This megathread's topic is inspired by our lovely news regular, @Frogmanfromlake@hexbear.net, who talks often about the conditions inside El Salvador and gives nuanced and informative takes.

As the Trump administration continues to make foreign policy blunders that would make even the staunchest anti-imperialist accelerationist blush - and we are barely three months in! - it's interesting to compare and contrast his policies of incompetent imperialist and domestic management to the dictators in other countries.

Bukele is somewhat unique among fascists, in that he seems to not hide - and seems to even admit to - his evil, self-describing as the world's "coolest dictator". El Salvador has no particular shortage of prominent fascists in their history, but one major example is Maximiliano Martínez, who led the country over much of the 1930s and the early 1940s. He was responsible the deaths of many thousands of communists and indigneous people, and yet joined World War 2 on the side of the Allies and against the Nazis.

The comparisons between Martínez and Bukele - and, indeed, between Bukele and Trump - in terms of their impact on minority groups are slowly growing as world attention is being drawn to the country. The recent meeting between Bukele and Trump has shifted a spotlight onto El Salvador's crime policy; the internal conditions of El Salvador's prisons are genuinely monstrous. One gets a similar feeling as when reading descriptions of the conditions of Holocaust victims in German concentration camps. Trump has made statements to the effect that he want a similar crime crackdown inside the United States, and I certainly believe that he wants this (ICE is already just kidnapping people off the streets into vans), but his administration has been so chaotic and mismanaged that it's difficult to determine whether this will be an interest he rapidly drops in favor of some other hair-brained scheme.

Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

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783 comments

  • In case anyone's wondering why I only share or post satellite imagery or geolocations after any bombings have already happened, and am very strict about OPSEC (even to the point of not reposting posts from resistance figures or media with poor OPSEC), this is why. US CENTCOM has been using social media OSINT (twitter, telegram, WhatsApp, etc) for targeting information, resulting in innocent people dying.

    Twitter source

    Xcancel mirror

    Remember, this is war, not a circus or videogame. Innocent people just like me and you are dying. Don't post, repost or share incriminating stuff, even if a popular resistance figure posts say, a selfie of themselves next to a US daytime bombing while it's happening (Yes, this actually happened, no, I will not share it). Don't post satellite imagery of "potential military sites". Unfortunately many people online in OSINT communities do not understand this, they either don't realise war is real or they don't consider those on the other side of the world as human.

    Ultimately the responsibility is on those doing the bombings (the US Navy in this case), and a group's OPSEC is their own responsibility, and not the responsibility or fault of random twitter accounts, but still, don't play any part in the death of innocent people. There's a reason why Ansarallah in Yemen have put in place a strict official media and social media censorship campaign, which I have posted about before.

    Also if the Commiejones moderator on hexbear is still around, thank you for enforcing OPSEC when you were around.

    If anyone's wondering, the data I use for the daily Yemen posts comes from the Ansarallah/Houthi owned and ran Al Masirah TV.

  • Firestorms in Israel

    Huge forest fires in Israel. So-called 'firestorms' are raging all across Israel, with much of the country experiencing strong winds with velocities up to 110 km/h, reportedly a 'highly unusual' event per Israeli media.

    All 'Independence Day' events and gatherings are canceled across Israel due to the firestorms. Israeli tanks and military bases are burning in the firestorm. The firestorm has reached an Israeli military base in Central Israel, with soldiers reportedly trapped inside their barracks and possibly being burnt alive.

    Israeli Channel 14: Some of Israel's highways are completely shut down due to the firestorm. 'There are dozens of fires burning across the country, and not a single one of them is located in an Arab area'

    Israeli Fire Commissioner: 'The firestorm is spreading at a significant rate. Winds are expected to worsen, and the fires will become more severe the next 24 hours' Not a single one in the West Bank or any Arab community inside Israel. A massive sandstorm has started to appear in the Israeli Negev desert

    Israel: 'International aid and firefighting teams will not start working until tomorrow' Israel has requested international assistance to combat the ongoing fires, reaching out to Cyprus, Croatia, Greece, and Italy for support.

    • Telegram

  • Trump: "We were losing hundreds of billions of dollars with China. Now we're essentially not doing business with China. Therefore, we're saving hundreds of billions of dollars. It's very simple."

    wow

  • Israel has used drones to attack a Gaza humanitarian aid flotilla in International waters off the coast of Malta.

    UPDATE from Thiago Ávila, coordinator of the Freedom Flotilla still in Malta:

    We had another mission 15 years ago that was attacked, and 10 of our participants were killed in this mission of the Mavi Marmara. And right now we just suffered another attack, where two drones attacked our boat and put our boat on fire and created a big hole on our boat. There was a distress signal that was sent to all neighboring countries, to all the vessels nearby.

    And until very early in the morning, no one had responded to this. This happened now six hours ago. And now that we finally — the fire was put down, and finally, the drones that attacked the boat are out of the region.

    But we are very concerned for our participants. This is part of a humanitarian mission that was carrying food and medical aid to Gaza, because Gaza has now been for 58 days under total blockade — that not a single bag of flour, not a single bottle of water has entered Gaza for 58 days under a state of famine in the Gaza Strip.

    So we were trying to break the siege and create a people's humanitarian corridor, with people from over 20 different countries and carrying all the aid we could carry. We had members of parliament, we had actors, we had doctors, we had news outlets, we had influencers, we had grassroots solidarity movement activists as well for Palestine.

    And we were doing our best. This was a confidential mission. Because they've been attempting bureaucratic warfare on us, we were not disclosing the information until then that we were going, because they've been trying to hinder us. We were supposed to be on the boat three days ago now, and we've been hindered. And now, a few hours before we depart, we were attacked.

    And so we are due to share this information, to contact local politicians, to contact everyone you can, so that the Maltese government organize a proper rescue operation, which is not ongoing until now, and it's been many, many hours. We don't want to antagonize this government.

    We actually think this government needs to be an ally on a rescue mission, but we really need to denounce the war crime that happened because the boat was 13 nautical miles from Maltese territory, so it's in international waters, but it's nearby Malta, and we need people to denounce this attack, this war crime that just happened against a peaceful humanitarian mission to Gaza. And we need people to put the spotlight as well on the total blockade that Gaza has been suffering for 58 days.

    We only went to the boat because we knew there was no other choice to open a humanitarian corridor, so the people of the world were willing to open it.

    And we were attacked. So we were urged for your help, and Nicole here is part of our delegation, has been doing an amazing, amazing job, and we count on you to follow up with her, because we really need you right now, and especially the people, the Palestinian people in Gaza need you more than ever.

    From elsewhere on Twitter:

    We spoke with Jasmine, one of the organizers of the Freedom Flotilla.

    She reports that the 30 people aboard the ship are afraid to board lifeboats—fearing Israel will strike them again once exposed. As of now, there are no confirmed injuries, but communication with the ship has been lost.

    Jasmine is currently organizing an independent operation with others to reach the Freedom Flotilla after 7 hours without any response to the ship’s SOS. Authorities, embassies, and officials have remained silent.

    The ship is sinking in international waters.

    Despite multiple calls to embassies, media, and an SOS call and beacon no countries responded for over 6 hours until a Cypriot vessel picked up the SOS call and sent help.

    I don't have the national makeup of activists on board for obvious reasons, but if any of them were British then it's highly likely that the British government has actively assisted in the illegal drone striking of one of its own citizens since they provide radio surveillance of that area, as well as surveillance flights and targeting for Israeli drones from RAF Akrotiri on Cyprus.

    History is repeating itself again, as a reminder; in 2010 Israeli military boarded and stormed a previous Gaza humanitarian flotilla and executed at least 10 activists, all unarmed, some at point blank range, including UK and US citizens.

  • Happy May Day comrades!

    Some May Day reporting from Finland. The local reactionary nazis held a gathering in the city of Tampere today. Their gathering was fully protected by the cops who violently arrested 15 counter-protesters and used a growd control rifle on them.

    The local bougie newspaper report about this here, you can see some of the nazis protected by the cops. They've essentially built a little pen for the fash and during their pathetic unjoyous little march they protected them from all sides.

    The national news piece here.

    A short video about the cops shooting a counter-protester who is throwing back a torch the fash threw in the crowd. This video will expire in two days.

    The counter-protesters threw eggs and torches toward the fash and in general tried to make their cop protected little march fail.

    This picture of one of the counter-protesters goes extremely hard:

  • dow nearly where the liberation started, and yield fallen to 4.6 from 4.9 on 30 years treasuries, another nothing ever happens gang W.

    • We have stopped all trade with the largest market in the world and stocks are the same. Money is so fucking fake man

    • I believe - and I think there’s a tremendous amount of evidence that supports me - that the stock market is “efficient” in the sense that all information is processed nearly instantly (that doesn’t mean stock markets lead to efficient allocation of capital, that’s a very different thing). So that begs the question, the market is NOT pricing in an economic crash. Why?

      It’s reasonable to conclude that market makers are not on the Trump Train and don’t actually believe he will restart American manufacturing or bring in hundreds of billions in tariff revenue.

      OK, so that means the market thinks the tariffs won’t have much of an impact. Given the broad consensus among economists of all stripes about tariffs, it’s also reasonable to conclude that it’s not that the market anticipates there will be no impact from tariffs.

      Thus, I think that right now the market assumes these tariffs won’t stick, and that they’ll actually disappear fairly soon. Market makers are not blind acolytes of capitalism, though. They have a laser focus on making money. So IMO, I think they have reliable inside information that the tariffs won’t stick. Like, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bessent is begging China to just give Trump the most nominal, pointless win so he can fold. And the market - looking back on the past - thinks China will end up being the rational grown-up and will spare any economic pain for giving Trump is cookie.

      And… they might be right. Or at least, I see why this is the response from bourgeois capitalists. But I think if the market ever gets the notion that the tariffs might actually stick then I think you will see the market crash hard and fast. Maybe not as bad as 1929 because I think the market will hold out hope that the tariffs will be lifted (and why would anyone destroy the economy on purpose?) if things get really bad.

      • market is inefficient plenty of times, it might just be external hedge funds have unloaded onto trump simps, the volume will then thin out, every retail trader will leverage out, and then it will crash a second time with margin calls on retail traders after disappointing q2

        or you might be right.

        the market has volume, price and depth of volume at the price (which is unknowable until price is reached), maybe someone dumping 200 billion will go unnoticed, maybe it will crash the whole thing, because deep pockets think different from you, but don't care to short (but also won't care to buy), and just wait on sidelines (like buffet). crashing dollar is very impossible proposition for example, no one has pockets deep enough against money printer, so they can't pull off asian/pound crash even if they plausibly wanted to, forex markets aren't that deep on that scale.

        like examples of shadowy albatrosses everyone ignores inside america: saudis are cash negative already at 65 dollars, what they'll do with that; india/pakistan is absolutely not priced in, despite modi being second bibi; oil inside usa is not, strictly speaking, very cash money as well at 65 (i think some wells are at 40$ cost, while some at 55, which is already bordering on non-profitable); lumber/steel shocks in construction, truck deliveries missing plausibly a month at this point; dropshippers not getting ad revenue, which also fucks google/meta; farmers getting boned inside usa with usaid pull out; ai not fucking working (tech companies do be swimming in cash to afford it, but their evaluation implies much more); construction work inside cities suddenly getting labor prices of non-migrant workers as well.

    • Yea, local currency bond yields were never a good measure. On the other hand, exchange rates are. DXY hasn't recovered much.

      There will always be demand for US Treasuries domestically as long as the US State is functional. It has no risk of involuntary default and is basically money (even long term ones to some extent). Short term treasuries are considered "cash equivalents" in accounting.

      Hedge funds and money managers love Treasuries. It's the easiest way to store money. Reserve accounts at the Fed are only accessible to eligible financial institutions, Treausries are accessible to public.

      If you are a money manager, you can store money in a commercial bank and earn interest. Even if there were no default risk and all deposits were guaranteed by Gov, the deposits are still a liability of the commercial bank, not the Government.

      That is not the case with treasuries, these are direct libablities of the Gov.

    • markets declaring they're not a measure of the economy is very cool and will definitely have no implications with the imperial core

  • The 'Gaza Freedom Flotilla' aid organization has announced that approximately six hours ago, one of its ships was attacked twice by Israeli drones while in international waters near Malta There are reportedly 30 aid workers onboard.

    This is the second time since the outbreak of the war on Gaza that Israel has sabotaged the aid organization’s plans to deliver aid, the first being in April 2024, and the fifth instance overall.

    • Telegram

  • Al-Quds Brigades announce two operations against Israeli occupation forces

    In a statement, the Brigades reported that their fighters, upon returning from the frontlines, confirmed the detonation of an MK84 bomb—originally left behind by the Zionist enemy—which had been pre-planted to target an enemy military convoy in the same area last Saturday.

    The group also claimed responsibility for the precise bombing of an Israeli military D9 bulldozer as it advanced east of Al-Tuffah, emphasizing the operation's high accuracy.

    MK84 is a 2,000lb bomb. Congratulations to Palestine on their new space program

  • Big news from Iran, with the suspension of negotiations between the USA and Iran. Iran has unveiled a new Anti Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) called the Qassem Basir. This is the ASBM version of the land attack Haj Qassem ballistic missile, with a range of 1400km for the land attack version, Iran claims a range of either 1200km or 1300km for the anti ship version (conflicting information currently). Yes, these missiles are named after Qassem Soleimani. This is big news as the current longest range dedicated ASBM in the Iranian arsenal (and potentially Yemeni arsenal) is the Zulfiqar Basir, with a range of 700km, so we're looking at nearly double the range.

    Qassem Basir ASBM variant:

    View of the target in the bottom half of the image from the missile's electro-optical seeker:

    Haj Qassem land attack original variant:

    Now, the Zulfiqar, Dezful, and Qassem missiles are all part of the same family of ballistic missiles (which I will call the Zulfiqar family), in that they all use a Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicle (MaRV) of similar design, with Dezful and Qassem being ways to extend the range of the Zulfiqar MaRV, from 700km, to 1000km with Dezful, to 1400km with Qassem. With an ASBM version of Zulfiqar already in existence, it makes sense to use the Qassem as a longer range ASBM platform.

    How this missile works and acquires it's target is similar to how other Iranian shorter range ASBMs work, and an extension of the Pershing-II concept (first ever MaRV equipped land attack ballistic missile). The missile is targeted at an appropriate re-entry point, near the actual or predicted location of a ship. During re-entry, the MaRV performs a "pull up" maneuver, then a "glide phase". During this glide, the electro optical seeker, likely an infrared camera, acquires it's target using image matching techniques (Iran calls this AI now, yes the AI mind virus is everywhere), and them plans a trajectory towards it, before performing a final dive to the target, ideally with an impact velocity above Mach 2.

    The big breakthrough here is getting the seeker to survive the higher speed and higher altitude re-entry associated with longer range. The Zulfiqar Basir had a burnout and initial terminal velocity of over Mach 7, and the Raad-500/Tankeel of Mach 8. So that was the previous limit. The land attack Haj Qassem had a peak velocity of Mach 12. With the range being reduced slightly for the anti ship version, likely to reduce velocity to ensure survival of the electro optical seeker, peak velocity is likely not as high. But I'd guess a safe estimate is that the seeker can now survive Mach 10+ speeds, a noticeable improvement.

    Iran has unveiled this very covertly, under the guise of a "new missile to target Israel and evade THAAD", but the Basir designation (means to see or perceive in this context, used for Iranian ballistic missiles with electro-optical seekers,), and presence of an electro-optical (likely infrared) seeker on the MaRV, tells a different story. This is an ASBM that works in the same ways as other Iranian ASBMs. Yes it can be used to strike land targets in Israel with higher accuracy in GNSS jammed environments (like shorter range Iranian missiles have done in the past versus US military bases, but now at long range versus Israel, solving the accuracy problem for long range Iranian ballistic missile attacks), but that's a dual use capability that could make a hypothetical "Operation True Promise III" counterforce attack more viable in future. The real question for now is, if Ansarallah/the Houthis in Yemen will get their hands on it.

    This is a card that Iran has had up it's sleeve and is now being played, the question is, how will they play it. Exclusively for themselves, or will Yemen get it to strike US Navy warships. Without further modifications to increase range involving lighter payloads and suboptimal minimum energy trajectories, it's not viable to hit targets in Israel from Yemen (2000km range is needed for that), and I can't see the electro optical sensor surviving re-entry under those conditions.

    4 minute long video is included in the article:

    Iran unveils its latest ballistic missile 'Qassem Basir', May 4 2025

  • TASS: Trump vows to reduce customs duties for China

    "At some point, I’m going to lower them because otherwise, you could never do business with them. And they want to do business very much. Look, their economy is really doing badly. Their economy is collapsing," he told NBC News in an interview.

  • On the loss of an F/A-18E Super Hornet aircraft and a tow truck/tractor during an evasive turn by the USS Harry Truman aircraft carrier during an Ansarallah/Houthi attack (as confirmed by US sources), here's the statement from the Yemeni Armed Forces on the attack (this statement was released before the news of the loss of the F-18).

    This is the first time that an Anti Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) has been fired at US Navy warships in over 20 days from what I recall (there was one launch at a supply ship, not a warship, during this time with a ballistic missile). This, along with the statement about "fleeing north" afterwards, suggests that the USS Harry Truman aircraft carrier tried to get closer to Yemen, including coming within ASBM range. During this, it came under attack, including by ASBMs and evidently there was some big error that led to the F-18 going overboard while evading this attack.

    I don't think that the Harry Truman will try get closer to Yemen again anytime soon, and will continue to stay between Jeddah and Yanbu, between 700km-1000km away from Yemen. ASBMs, by all evidence of the current US Navy campaign, seem to be a "game changer" weapon in area denial capabilities. Even without landing a single hit so far, these weapons have been very effective in area denial against US Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs). While their not magic wands that erase CSGs, they can keep them further away (area denial). Ansarallah/the Houthis were the first ever military force to use ASBMs in warfare, and have been highly innovative with these locally manufactured, Iranian designed, weapons. The CSGs don't dare to come within 700km of Yemen (Zulfiqar Basir ASBM range). This is the first time they've tried to in three weeks, and it resulted in a fighter jet going overboard during evasive maneuvers. It's no wonder that the US Army wants ASBMs, and other longer range ballistic missiles, now.

    Overall this was a very expensive "test" by the US Navy in my opinion, they wanted to see if Yemeni ASBM capability remained intact after over 40 days of airstrikes, reduced amount of Yemeni missile attacks, and over 20 days without without an ASBM being fired, so they sailed closer to Yemen to find out. It turns out that yes, Yemeni ASBM capability was (and is) still very much intact, and an F-18 and tow truck have been lost as a result of evading a Yemeni attack.

  • The Washington Post reports that Mike Waltz was dismissed due to his extensive communication with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about military action against Iran. Officials in the Trump administration believed he was trying to 'tip the scales in favor of military action' and was closely collaborating with the Israelis.

    • Telegram

  • In a very predictable turn of events, National security adviser Mike Waltz and his deputy, Alex Wong, have now been fired from the Trump administration. This comes after Waltz took responsibility for the "signal leaks" on military operations in Yemen to an Atlantic journalist, and Laura Loomer led a social media campaign to get Waltz and Wong fired, including an in person meeting with Trump.

    Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz and his deputy to leave posts in White House, sources say - CBS News, 1 May 2025

    Update: Trump is sending Waltz to the UN (essentially giving him a "soft landing" instead of being kicked to the curb), Marco Rubio will dual hat as both the Secretary of State and the National Security Advisor, similar to Henry Kissinger from 1973-1975. Some were portraying this as a win for the "pro peace/negotiations with Iran faction", but given Rubio's appointment and subsequent statements, that is not the case. With Musk and Waltz now gone or relegated to background characters, Rubio has consolidated a ton of power, as I've said he's in the same position as Henry Kissinger was. In fact, Rubio has even more power than Kissinger did, with USAID under State Department control.

  • The HTS-led government in Syria has arrested the Secretary General of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine – General Command (PFLP-GC) and shut down all of its offices. This follows the Syrian government's arrest of two commanders from Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) just two weeks ago, who still remain in custody with no charges.

    • Telegram
783 comments