UK Politics @feddit.uk GreyShuck @feddit.uk 1 yr. ago

‘Seismic night in Scotland’: Labour crushes SNP in Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection

www.theguardian.com ‘Seismic night in Scotland’: Labour crushes SNP in Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection

Michael Shanks takes victory in contest that Labour considered a crucial test of apparent turnaround of its fortunes in Scotland

Scottish Labour’s Michael Shanks has won the Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection in an overwhelming victory over the SNP that the party leadership declared “seismic”, and a clear demonstration that Scotland could lead the way in delivering a Labour government at Westminster at the coming general election.

In a result that exceeded Scottish Labour expectation, Shanks beat his closest rival, the SNP’s Katy Loudon, by 17,845 votes to 8,399 – a majority of 9,446 and a resounding swing of over 20%.

40 comments

the Scottish Conservative candidate lost his deposit on the night

You love to see it
- That’s not to say there aren’t loads of Tories. Just that they almost all tactically voted for Labour to get the SNP out.
  
  If only 80s or even 90s Britain could see Scottish politics now. They would wonder wtf is going on, with Tory/Labour tactical voting and coalitions.
Great result, but winning back a seat they last held in the 2017-19 parliament (and whose predecessor seats were Labour from 1964 and 1970 respectively until 2015) is not really seismic.
- Mm, a swing of 20% is still a big swing - no?
  
  It is, but the history of the seat suggests it's the sort of seat a Labour Party on the up should be winning without difficulty - even Corbyn won it in 2017. So I don't see it as something on the scale of Somerton and Frome, or Tiverton and Honiton, or North Shropshire, or if either the Lib Dems or Labour were to win in Mid-Bedfordshire.
The SNP kidnapped a popular Scottish idea and warped their power to their own short term ends. Sad but true. They were their own worst enemy. The Tories continue to snort and spew an increasingly large foul puddle toxicity and filth off the slope of the failed Scottish referendum and Brexit. They (edit: the Tories) do not deserve, under any moral compass, any power in government yet they and their dark money backers have sewn up the system.
- I honestly think the SNP still want independence, and to have a referendum, but they have no official route to get one. Which is completely wrong, democratically speaking.
  
  Not really, there are tons of seperatist areas in countries around the world that would like to break away but aren't permitted to by their central government. The SNP were permitted a referendum and lost, which is more than, say, the Spanish will give to Catalonia or the French to the Basques.
  
  The question that I have is... say the SNP had another referendum, and the results were the same as the previous one. Would they then want another one? And another one after that? Would they just keep asking the same question until, by chance, it eventually comes out as 51% of the electorate wanting independence? If the SNP had the ability to call a referendum on independence whenever and however often they want, would there be a mechanism in place to stop them doing it every 6 months until they get the answer they want?
  
  I'm not opposed to Scotland becoming independent if that's genuinely what Scotland wants. But given support for it isn't overwhelming, according to all the polls, it's not a given that a second referendum would go the way the SNP wants. So at what point would they give up on independence if there was never enough consistent public support for it?
Full results, with major parties in bold (with apologies to His Imperial Majesty, the Emperor of India):

Gloria Adebo (Scottish Liberal Democrats) - 895 (2.9%)

Bill Bonnar (Scottish Socialist Party) - 271

Garry Cooke (Independent) - 6

Andrew Daly (Independent) - 81

Cameron Eadie (Scottish Greens) - 601 (2%)

Prince Ankit Love, Emperor of India - 34

Niall Fraser (Scottish Family Party) - 319

Ewan Hoyle (Volt UK) - 46

Thomas Kerr (Scottish Conservatives) - 1,192 (3.9%)

Katy Loudon (SNP) - 8,399 (27.6%)

Chris Sermanni (Scottish Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) - 178

Michael Shanks (Scottish Labour) - 17,845 (58.6%)

David Stark (Reform UK) - 403

Colette Walker (Independence for Scotland Party) - 207

Source: The BBC

Result: Labour gain from the SNP.
- with apologies to His Imperial Majesty, the Emperor of India
  
  I had to Google to make sure shit wasn't being made up, but no, he actually calls himself the emperor of India.
  
  You know the saying: the road to India runs through Rutherglen and Hamilton West*.
  
  *No need to google this, which I did make up.
  
  Eh, citation needed? I thought Emperor of India was dropped by George VI.
  
  Charles III, by the Grace of God of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and of His other Realms and Territories King, Head of the Commonwealth, Defender of the Faith.
  
  Pretty sure he’s talking about the take-away round the corner.
I have to presume tactical voting was rife, plugging these figures into a Scotland electoral calculus with their most recent national figures suggests the SNP would be completely wiped out in Scotland. I’m not convinced things are that bad for them yet. Still, I think Labour are likely to take a majority of Scottish seats.
- Curtis on the radio this morning was saying that labour would most likely get half the seats.
  
  That does make their task at the next election a lot easier.
I think what this really says is that Rutherglen and Hamilton West has a lot of Stargate fans.
The SNP is holed below the waterline. Losing two to one is not something you walk away from. I expect that the next Holyrood elections in 2026 will return a Labour, or Labour-Tory unionist coalition, government.
- There are some reasons why the result in this particular seat would be worse than the general trend (covid rule breaking etc) but still, that's an absolute rinsing.
Pretty striking stuff. It will be interesting to see to what extent Labour can hold together this broad coalition once a general election is underway and they need to take a clear position on things like Scottish independence.
This is the best summary I could come up with:

In a result that exceeded Scottish Labour expectation, Shanks beat his closest rival, the SNP’s Katy Loudon, by 17,845 votes to 8,399 – a majority of 9,446 and a resounding swing of over 20%.

But Yousaf added that the “circumstances of this byelection were always very difficult for us” – the contest was triggered after constituents voted for the Covid rule-breaking former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier to be removed from her seat.

During the campaign Shanks, a modern studies teacher at a local high school, said people were desperate for “a fresh start” following years of limbo with Ferrier, who sat as an independent after she was suspended from the SNP.

Both candidates centred their campaigns around the cost of living crisis, with Shanks attacking the SNP government at Holyrood’s record on public services and Loudon accusing UK Labour of “colluding” with Tory policies like the two-child benefit cap.

Polls suggest the SNP’s dominance is diminishing as the party struggles with questions of transparency and governance linked to the police investigation into its financial conduct, with Labour the beneficiary.

With no clear route to a second independence referendum and the public overwhelmed by cost of living concerns, there are strong indications that Scottish voters are now less likely to choose which party to back based on their constitutional preferences.

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