They can't hold out forever
They can't hold out forever
They can't hold out forever
According to the convincing argument by Gary Stevenson, so long as wealth inequality persists, assets are going to just get more expensive.
It's not collapsing, Jack.
Going from 100 middle class people buying and selling 100 homes amongst each other to 2 extremely wealthy people 100 homes amongst each other and 98 people renting. The rich guys will price the assets out of reach of everyone else and make up the difference in rental profits.
It's worth noting that there just isn't enough supply that's actually in play in the market to rent or buy. Housing has two levels of demand because shelter is a need: there's the inelastic demand (I need shelter and I'll pay almost any price to make sure I have it) and elastic demand (I want to buy a house as an investment or a vacation property). This bubble isn't going to pop because it's not a true bubble; the supply of housing is below the need for housing that manifests as demand (the inelastic demand), which has sent the price skyrocketing because you've got people trying to satisfy a very deep inelastic demand with very shallow inelastic supply. That's had the knock-on effect of making it so that now the people just trying to find shelter are directly competing against people trying to find investments, and while the investors almost always have more money than you do, it also means that the price ceiling (the absolute maximum anyone is willing to pay for that property) gets raised even higher.
The reason why we got here, why the supply got so low on the first place, is because we basically stopped building houses after 2006. Even when we did start building houses again, I think the rate at which we're building them never fully recovered. There's a few other problems I'd be happy to get into, but here's the gist: the only housing really getting built without federal grant money is single family homes. We are NEVER going to solve the housing crisis by building not quite enough single family homes year over year. It just takes too much time and money to build too little capacity. So, what can you do about it?
Well, there's great news. If you live in a city or even a modest size town, and most people do, there's a really good chance you have a city council that meets regularly. This council has A LOT of control over what gets built in your city or town! In fact, they can control the zoning, and if your city is like mine, it's probably 90% exclusionary low-density single family home zoning by surface area, and probably has outrageous parking minimums that all but guarantee both a housing supply shortage and a lack of services (groceries, small cafes, etc) in those neighborhoods (which also raises your cost of living because now you NEED a car). They always have a public comment period so that people can raise issues that they feel are important.
Go to these council meetings and tell at them about how there isn't enough housing being built. They will cry about how they can't control the free market, but they can and do via zoning codes. If you keep the pressure up over time, you can make progress. If you meet other like-minded people there and network with them, you can make progress. You can get out there and make this change, it is within your reach.
Like 10% of all housing sits vacant, the lack of supply in the market is not just a lack of units, it's also a strategy by investors to keep prices high.
As a millennial that was somehow able to afford a house this bubble needs to fucking pop.
I'll be locked into this house until I die and all of my friends and family will have to keep moving further away as they get priced out of their apartments each year. Before this I had moved 8 times in 6 years.
I bought mine during the housing crash in 2008. Shit was ballin. No way I could afford a house now.
Also a millennial. Wife and I got our condo right before everything shot up, got a nice 3.25% APR. Great mortgage honestly. But we've been trying to sell our condo for a YEAR now and I honestly think it's the bubble holding back a sale. The condo is just too expensive for what it is (and the horrific rise of small community HOA fees has gotten way out of hand...). We're priced right compared to others on the market, but selling condos is just stupid hard right now.
Sure I'd love it if we could sell now and get some nice profits from the sale, but I absolutely agree this bubble needs to pop!
I would love to buy a condo right now, but rent is cheaper than buying looking at a 5 year time frame until mortgage rates drop below at least 6%. It would be years before the interest and taxes portion of the payment dropped below our current rent.
We've literally agreed with our landlords who want to sell after we leave that we're all sitting still until mortgage rates drop. (Or I guess inflation rises high enough to offset the debt versus investment part of the pile.)
And this is all after moving to Utah from the west coast to get cheaper housing in general... Although the lower paychecks basically balance it all out 😂
I see, so we must collapse Blackrock first.
Just be aware that BlackRock is capitalism’s final boss.
They are the most well known private equity firm, but when I learned they are in the 40th place of how many assets they own and manage I was flabbergasted... Worth giving in some more time to understand what happened to the financial world in the past 25-30 years. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-50-largest-private-equity-firms/ . Personally I can't wrap my head around how much money this ultra rich club has.
This is Berkshire Hathaway Erasure.
Just know that black rock has 9% or higher controlling share in almost all companies and they colluded with vanguard and another company I don't remember and all those 3 companies have 9% controlling shares in each others so they all 3 vote same in almost every thing
I'd love to buy your condos - but if we look at renting versus buying... It's cheaper to rent versus buy until mortgage rates drop below 6%. We'll just be sitting here adding to the mortgage payment pile until then.
A house is laughably out of reach.
Your mortgage payment can often be cheaper than your rent payments. If your waiting until the rates drop, you'll be in an insane amount of competition to get a property.
If you buy now, you can then refinance at a later date and get literally $100k's off your mortgage. The downside is that your gambling on interest rates dropping.
Isn't it Blackstone and not blackrock that buys homes (and not that many)?
Blackrock is part of the big three (BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street). They own a portion of almost everything, including each other.
So it's often the case that Blackrock is involved, even indirectly.
https://theconversation.com/these-three-firms-own-corporate-america-77072
No, but they can remain solvent longer than you can survive on the streets.
And that's how they get you.
they have enough money to remain solvent for generations.
and they're using our retirement money to do it
What impact would a nationwide guerilla campaign of vandalism against say, Berkshire do?
I think we need more than vandalism. But it couldn't hurt. Where's Mario?
Why stop at Berkshire? Vandalize any home that sits vacant. We have more vacant homes than homeless in America. We just need to make vacant homes too big of a risk
Sounds like a convenient excuse to make everything a rental, or to just tear down all vacant homes.
You can't expect these people to sit by an issue they can toss money at to make better for them.
everything they own is insured and you would be doing them a favor if they could collect on the insurance money instead of holding onto the assets.
As a Millennial, I'm confused why you wouldn't use the correct White Ninja meme on the left.
What if they start a huge fire and burnt down a ton of houses if they couldn't hold out anymore?
In Germany real estate became significantly cheaper in many parts (not all, not e.g. Berlin or Hamburg). In my north German mid size city we had ~15 percent price reduction in the last 2 years. In our neighbour city they even had 25%.
On the other hand, I know people who sold their houses when prices where high, invested their money and are happy renters now. It apparently can be a lot better financially according to many experts (here in Germany, no idea about the US).
Or luigi blackrock
I want those 2015 prices
Why stop there? 1950s, please. Even if you adjust for inflation, a mortgage would be a small fraction of what rent is.
I heard the standard of houses were poorer then which was part of the pricing issues.