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German election live: Centre-right CDU and CSU parties win, say exit polls Far-right Alternative for Germany records best result with close to 20 per cent of the vote

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  • Inside Perspective here:

    The former government colation (SPD, Greens, FDP) did not do a good enough job in the eyes of most germans. Mostly due to sabotage from the FDP who repeatedly blocked proposals and was the main reason for the breaking of the whole coaltition in the first place...

    While the artivle claims that the CDU is expected to hold of against the AfD, the situation on the ground is different. Merz has just recently broken tabu by wanting to push an immigration restriction explicitly with votes from the AfD. So fears that the CDU is willing to form a government with them are substantiated by precedent.

    This woule give them a majority, but could break the CDU internally. Not all of them like the AfD and Merz is barely human to begin with, especially unpopular with women for good reasons. Even a former chancellor, Angela Merkel, stepped in to explocitly criticise Merz for that move specifically.

    Likely it will be CDU + SPD or CDU + SPD + Greens.

    All of this is happening while a ban of the AfD is currently underway, but with this result that idea might become compromised.

    Summary: Things turned out bad as expected, but as long as a CDU + AfD coalition is avoided, we still have a slim chance to not burn down the whole country.

  • The main coalition scenarios

    The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, is widely expected to win the election with around 30 per cent of the vote. 

    Such a result would be only six percentage points higher than its historically worst performance in 2021. Anything below 30 per cent would be a disappointment for Merz, who has sought to contain the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is projected to win one in five votes on Sunday.

    Merz has expressed willingness to govern with the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens, while ruling out any coalition with the AfD. However, coalition negotiations could become complicated if smaller parties surpass the 5 per cent vote threshold and enter parliament.

    A more fragmented Bundestag could make a two-party coalition unfeasible, potentially forcing Merz into a three-party alliance — a scenario reminiscent of the dysfunctional coalition between the SPD, the Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP).

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