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  • That chart specifically says "sightings". So does that actually mean there are more whales or does that mean there are more humans than ever and specifically more humans with cameras than ever before?

    Not saying it's lying I'm just curious if the wording is being used to be intentionally misleading or if the real data doesn't look so peachy.

    • You got me curious and I wasn't satisfied with any of the existing responses to this. I agree that public sightings would certainly be correlated with whale population, but it would have plenty of other compounding factors, so it's a pretty poor way to estimate population.

      The Internation Whaling Commission will do sighting surveys do get an actual population estimate. This is with groups of specific people going out in boats and/or planes to spot them and using those numbers to extrapolate population number with certain confidence intervals. I'm not sure how they do the extrapolation, but I can't be bothered looking into it further.

      I did also find this plot using population estimates, including a projection to 2030 (made in 2019)

      https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/humpback-whale-population-hunted-to-near-extinction-recovers/11609318

      I'm guessing we would have the capability to gather more accurate measurements, but there's probably just no funding for that and the current sighting surveys are good enough for what we need...

    • More whale sightings is a good indication that there are more whales. Cameras have nothing to do with sightings.

      • Wait does "sightings" literally just mean someone says they saw a whale?

        So that could just be one whale that got into a shipment of cocaine and went on a breaching spree. /s

        I get that there's not much incentive for people to lie about having seen a whale, but I feel like we have the technology to have a more accurate number than just "Ted said he saw one".

    • More sightings means more whales. It's a concept similar to bird banding

      • I mean it seems economical, but I don't know if it's particularly scientific. Usually in science they want specific numbers. Values. Things they can measure directly.

        What specifically constitutes a single "sighting"? What if a whale surfaces multiple times around the same group. How would they know if that's multiple different whales breaching or just one whale that's breaching multiple times? Either one of those scenarios seems like an opportunity for data to get skewed doesn't it?

        I'm not asking because I think I know any better. I am genuinely curious how they quantify a "sighting".

69 comments