Meanwhile, history shows that periods of instability and crisis can provide fertile ground for rapid, positive change. This is the other side to derailment risk.
The conditions for doom loops also provide opportunities to accelerate virtuous circles. For example, out of the crises of the interwar period and the devastation of the second world war came legal protections for human rights, universal welfare systems and decolonisation. More recently, the first Trump administration spurred new waves of climate activism.
Blow a hole in the atmosphere, set half the planet on fire, and if anything miraculously survives, nuclear winter's older sibling will wreck their shit.
The science shows the current predicament and the fact that any "good things" are based on the idea of massive reforms (or even revolutions) occurring. This makes it very easily to estimate how bad the situation is based on what's not happening.
As the climate chaos gets worse, it's reasonable to expect more bad news, not less.