8mo ago

Autumn Nations Series - Week 3

Just starting an early thread as there's injury news that will impact the weekend.

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Argentina nearly did it tonight. Ireland ultimately with too much discipline in that defense to overcome. And too many caps, far too many caps - when are some of the 100+ retiring?
- Looks to me like Ireland's old bodies aren't going the distance and they're not getting a lot out of their bench so far. Probably similar to the ABs they should have started getting more experience into some of the players sooner.
- Envious of Argentina. We were 5th in the world once but have never been able to take the next step in terms of collecting the big scalps.
  
  Nor did Argentina take that scalp tonight. And we were 4 pts shy ourselves this year in Dublin. Home adv may mean that it's a coin flip in 2025!
Wales getting pumped as predicted. 13-31 at 50' I make it by the radio
- Australia playing with only 14 men too.
  
  Jesus, and despite playing 20 minutes with only 14 men, the Wallabies finished fresher than Wales too. Gatland's time has passed, his tenure with the Chiefs was dire and when McMillan took over as head coach immediately turned results around. It really feels like he's tarnishing his prior to 2020 reputation now.
Scotland were really scrappy against Portugal. It wasn't even the new caps being green. Matthews and Horne were not on point.
England seem to either pick attack or defence as their plan every game. Then they stick to one and completely ignore the other. They are attacking today. Smith continues to be great.
Going to miss NZ/France unfortunately. Foolishly agreed to socialise this evening when I should be holed up watching rugby!
- Yeah you shouldn't be leaking 3 tries to a team like Portugal really, but oftentimes games like that can kinda degenerate to somewhere in between each teams level.
  Re England, I'm starting to wonder if its possible that the age of the rush/blitz defence might be coming to an end and that's why they're adapting already having just perfected it 6 months ago.
  Teams might have finally worked out how to stress it enough that unless you're a Springboks with a whole replacement forward pack on the bench you just can't maintain it for more than 70 minutes. Too early to tell yet, but the next full calendar year of games will be interesting to see how things change. Though WR's foolish adjustment to refereeing escorts might counter any gains attack have had as teams can just go back to YOLO up a kick to relieve pressure.
  Haven't decided if I can be bothered watching the ABs game or not, feels like a somewhat unproductive use of time watching footie during the daylight hours.
Pretty messy game of Rugby in France v NZ. Another international game where territory was 50% plus determined by the referee not the players which I personally hate. I think Barrett's 2 decisions to go for 3 and get it close rather than attempt to get the points that would win the game were mistakes.
Razor also did not select well for this match. Jordan is not in form at 15, and Reece is very out of form at 14. Both players made mistakes that led to massive territory or points to France. Given how well McKenzie played against Ireland I still think the better selection was Jordan at 14 with Barrett at 15.
Finau's early injury forcing Lakai to play 78 minutes probably meant the bench impact wasn't as good as the last two weeks; though having said that the loose forwards looked really good even once when they were rejigged. But I think they really missed Cane's leadership at times in that game - at points looked a bit panicked.
It sounds weird given they got 30 points, but I think in a way France won without having to do too much. The big thing was absorb the pressure, their counter-attack was full of pace and very effective and in the last 60 minutes their defence was very strong. So long as they just managed to stay on the right side of the ref they got the W.
- Playing to the ref is what good teams do tbf. I've seen Scotland get that wrong for years. I missed it sadly, but it sounds like a fine margin game, yet another good episode of the France vs NZ epic :)
  
  Yeah, if you look at the stats around carries, (188), metres gained (1319), tackles broken/slipped (34) you'd wonder how NZ didn't finish with more points some of which came down to not getting much pay from the referee at times and some strange calls that took momentum off them at crucial points.
  But those numbers obscure that Jordan did a lot of long carries from the back straight into heavy shoulders which in the end didn't really help with much. It was clearly a tactic to run instead of kick, but the price was paid where at times both Reece and Jordan were completely gassed and couldn't get to the support line in time (Vaa'i pass to Jordan), or couldn't get back to shutdown the break (Reece just after).
  The lethargy showed in some of Reece's kick chases as well where he got up there completely isolated and had no ability to put any pressure on the French kick receipt to an extent that it was pointless him being there & just deprived NZ of a defender. If it was a tactic designed to fatigue the French, well it didn't really work. The ref let scrums take far too long to set which gave plenty of rest and even if the French forwards were getting slower, out wide & in the back field the French were fresher than NZ due to not having run as much.
  With the selected team it makes sense to play that way, because Jordan's kicking game isn't great and against the French it would have been too much chance of being picked apart - but that's why Foster picked him at 14 in Internationals where he excels.
  Oh well, so far this season Razor has been very stubborn until injury has forced him to change - hopefully a debrief over the summer will see a bit more of a pragmatic approach from his team.
Great to see Italy hold on for that win. Should keep the Georgia 6n crowd abayed for another couple of years
- After that Wallabies game, made Italy are safe as the 5th team and its the Welsh who need to drop out for Georgia ;)
  IMO (and i'm from the south where we ignore tradition and change stuff all the time, so I get i'm ignoring history here) changing to a two tier 5 Nations with promotion/relegation would be sick.
  Scotland, France, Ireland, England, Italy Georgia, Wales, Netherlands, Romania, Portugal
  (i'm a bit sketchy on which of the 2nd tier in Europe would be most likely to sustain a 5 nations type campaign, but still).
  I also think the Rugby Championship could do with a shake up as well - unfortunately, Samoa, Tonga, Canada & USA have all regressed so much that it would be hard to include them. But perhaps it could expand to a 6 nations with SA, NZ, Aus, Arg, Fiji & Japan. Albeit with Schmidt starting to improve the Aussies maybe the gap between the top 4 and bottom 2 is beginning to expand again.
  
  The 6n is the cash cow that keeps paying. Relegation is unthinkable. Italy for Georgia? It's just too far. The Nations cup we are in theory playing now could offer some hope, but looks yet another closed shop really.
  The tier2 world trophy in Lions years is my solution. This is also then the world cup qualifiers
Confirmation that Sam Cane is out under concussion protocols after that nasty gash to the head, plus Tele'a is out with an injury as well. Sam Darry is also injured from training and is or has already gone home.
Du Plessis Kirifi and Chay Fihaki have been called in from the All Blacks XV squad as cover.
After earlier confirmation that Luke Jacobson wouldn't make the tour, its now been confirmed that Ethan Blackadder and Daltan Papali'i are also not travelling north at all now as well.
So with Cane out injured it will be very interesting to see how Razor selects the team and bench. There's a few options.
Call Peter Lakai or Kirifi in at 7 and keep Finau on the bench, with Sititi & Savea staying at 6 & 8
Shift Sititi and Savea to 8 & 7 then bring Finau into the starting team with Lakai onto the bench (is already in the squad and covers more positions than Kirifi.
Do the same shift but move Barrett to 6, leaving Finau on the bench and starting Tuipulotu at lock with Lord coming in as cover on the bench.
With Tele'a out there's also lots of possible permutations for the backline - particularly with McKenzie playing so well against Ireland.
Shift Jordan back to 14 where he is playing better and bring Barrett into the 15 jersey
Reece back in at 14
Bring Reuben Love in at 14 or 15, and then McKenzie or Barrett cover from the bench.
Should make for an interesting team announcement in a day or two.

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