Bulletins and News Discussion from October 14th to October 20th, 2024 - Paper Tigers
Image is a frame taken from this video of Iranian missiles raining down on Israel without interception due to a weak and depleted air defense system after a year of war and genocide.
Mao, 1956:
Now U.S. imperialism is quite powerful, but in reality it isn't. It is very weak politically because it is divorced from the masses of the people and is disliked by everybody and by the American people too. In appearance it is very powerful but in reality it is nothing to be afraid of, it is a paper tiger. Outwardly a tiger, it is made of paper, unable to withstand the wind and the rain. I believe the United States is nothing but a paper tiger.
When we say U.S. imperialism is a paper tiger, we are speaking in terms of strategy. Regarding it as a whole, we must despise it. But regarding each part, we must take it seriously. It has claws and fangs. We have to destroy it piecemeal. For instance, if it has ten fangs, knock off one the first time, and there will be nine left, knock off another, and there will be eight left. When all the fangs are gone, it will still have claws. If we deal with it step by step and in earnest, we will certainly succeed in the end.
Strategically, we must utterly despise U.S. imperialism. Tactically, we must take it seriously. In struggling against it, we must take each battle, each encounter, seriously. At present, the United States is powerful, but when looked at in a broader perspective, as a whole and from a long-term viewpoint, it has no popular support, its policies are disliked by the people, because it oppresses and exploits them. For this reason, the tiger is doomed. Therefore, it is nothing to be afraid of and can be despised. But today the United States still has strength, turning out more than 100 million tons of steel a year and hitting out everywhere. That is why we must continue to wage struggles against it, fight it with all our might and wrest one position after another from it. And that takes time.
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section. Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war. Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis. Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language. https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one. https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts. https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel. https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator. https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps. https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language. https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language. https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses. https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
That is pretty much what started the whole SMO. He was making statements about securing nuclear weapons in violation of the Minsk 2 accords while the fascist militias where accelerating their shelling of Donbas. Is this his play to get more attention?
Since 2014, Ukraine has tried three times to convene consultations
with the guarantor states of the Budapest Memorandum. Three times
without success. Today Ukraine will do it for the fourth time. I, as
President, will do this for the first time. But both Ukraine and I are
doing this for the last time. I am initiating consultations in the
framework of the Budapest Memorandum. The Minister of Foreign Affairs
was commissioned to convene them. If they do not happen again or their
results do not guarantee security for our country, Ukraine will have
every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum is not working and
all the package decisions of 1994 are in doubt.
Budapest Memo is what binded Ukraine to not pursuing Nuclear Weapons.
There's another quote from a Ukr Def Minister or something around this
time that is more direct, but this seems like what really caused the
invasion once the border build up had been ongoing.
According to the three memoranda, Russia, the US and the UK
confirmed their recognition of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine becoming
parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and
effectively abandoning their nuclear arsenal to Russia, and that they
agreed to the following:
Respect the signatory's independence and sovereignty in the existing
borders.
Refrain from the threat or the use of force against the signatory.
Refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own
interest the exercise by the signatory of the rights inherent in its
sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.
Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to the
signatory if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an
object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against the signatory.
Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those
commitments.
Ukraine will consider arming itself with nuclear weapons if it does
not become a member of the NATO military alliance, the Ukrainian
ambassador to Germany said.
"Either we are part of an alliance like NATO and contribute in this
way to making Europe stronger ... or we are left with the other option,
which is to arm ourselves," Ambassador Andriy Melnyk told
Deutschlandfunk radio Thursday.
Kyiv would then "perhaps also consider its nuclear status," he
said. "How else can we guarantee our defense?"
It is 2024. A fascist regime in Europe, staring down the barrel of a lost war against Russia, is desperately trying to build or acquire a superweapon as it runs out of troops and begins concripting teenagers and older men