There is no way for Russia to rebuild all this Soviet stock and the war aint even over. How are they planning on securing their borders after the war when every country in the west hates them and China will make a play for Siberia and Far East by 2100.
If I was China I'd make a play for it by the end of the year, fuck Taiwan when you could snag all that free real-estate and precious metals Russia should have been mining instead of losing their ass in a war.
Right, China has an opportunity now while Russia is desperate, and that window will be open at least a generation for Russia to rebuild and repopulate, so this could be much earlier than OP predicted
There were some talking heads some months ago saying that the Ukraine war would determine if China expands into Taiwan militarily or russia economically. No need for weapons in the second case.
I still don't really see China attacking Taiwan as a particularly likely since it would involve tangling with the US, which may not come to anything but is an unknown factor.
I mean, they have nukes, actually invading them with intent to actually conquer them or permanently take significant parts of the country would be a risky move regardless of how depleted their stocks get.
That goes both ways, at least a little. It would be risky for Russia to ever use nukes, even on their own territory. It certainly wouldn't make the west happy, and their citizens probably don't want to see their own villages with mushroom clouds over them.
Sure is nice of Ukraine to start shooting them down closer to the pilots' homes, rather than making them travel all the way back from Ukranian territory.
Yeah was gonna say... Russia has abducted and moved native populations as part of their imperialism, for most of their history. Ukraine presumably doesn't want to take over Russia so they have no need for such inhumane tricks.
If you have a proper supply chain and logistics you don't need to rely on taking civilians stuff. The russian military and the members who loot the villages are just despicable
russians are razing entire villages now because they can't advance in any other way (currently). they didn't do that in first days of the war, or in 2014. that's because they can't use maneuver effectively now for combination of reasons (loss of skilled personnel, armoured vehicles, constant surveillance, contested airspace) (unlike ukrainians now in kursk)
The Russian (and the Soviet) army was never great at maneuver warfare. That requires field autonomy from commanders. Autocrats can't keep a strong, smart, well-trained and somewhat autonomous army since they always fear coups.
That's why historically Russia has been victorious by obliterating cities via massed artillery and air bombardment. This doesn't work so well unless the enemy stays put or assaults your fortified lines.
I wonder what Ukraine's long-term game is with Kursk, taking territory this way they proved they can but keeping it is a whole other story. It certainly keeps their enemy off-balance and forces them to spread while making them look even weaker.