Bulletins and News Discussion from July 29th to August 4th, 2024 - Haters Stay Mad(uro) - COTW: Venezuela
Image is of a colectivo: an armed group, usually operating in impoverished areas, which act to support and defend the socialist government of Venezuela. They are often derided as vigilante terrorist groups which prop up the government, because cops are only bad when they are socialist and not murdering minorities, I suppose.
Maduro's party, the PSUV, has won the election after a staggering amount of propaganda by the opposition, who said their polls suggested they were going to win and that Maduro's loss was inevitable. The reaction across Latin America is what one would expect. Left-leaning leaders are generally respecting the results and congratulating Maduro, while those on the right and/or are US puppets (such as in semirecently-couped Peru) are calling for recounts, or even that the election was illegitimate. The US itself is also unhappy about the results. We shall soon see if their unhappiness boils over into yet another coup attempt.
Personally, I think they should have ran Guaido again.
Thank you to @Redcuban1959@hexbear.net for the election coverage here, and everything else they do in the news megathread.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Venezuela! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section. Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war. Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language. https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one. https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts. https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel. https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator. https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps. https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language. https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language. https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses. https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Are we entering the cool zone, comrades? I log off for a week decade and when I come back I find Iran finally ready to commit to a war, there's no way they chose the term "special operation" not knowing everyone would immediately think of the "special military operation" that Russia is doing in Ukraine, right? Such is the power of touching grass.
I think it's more likely that we aren't, though it'll be worth keeping an eye on what the US starts doing with their ships and aircraft carriers and military bases if a) they think Iran and/or Hezbollah wants a war and b) they're truly serious about defending Israel. They won't wanna be in a situation where they have to spend months pulling assets together after a war begins; unlike with Ukraine, Israel is a tiny "country" with a relatively small population and not many cities, a significant fraction of Hezbollah's missile arsenal could turn Israel from first world to third world in a month. It's the danger of having economies so reliant on electricity and stable internet and tech corporations. Amal Saad has pointed out that despite the intense damage Israel could do to Lebanon, it wouldn't have the same state-destroying effect because Lebanon and its economy/people are already impoverished and have had time to adapt to a level of deprivation, whereas Israel has developed to the point where everything would fall apart if civilian utilities (electricity, natural gas, imports, desalination plants, etc) were hit and suddenly became inoperable.
Israel is a tiny "country" with a relatively small population and not many cities, a significant fraction of Hezbollah's missile arsenal could turn Israel from first world to third world in a month.
I think it's critical to remember just how tiny Israel is. It's significantly smaller than Belgium - a country that the Germans in WW1 were able to just sorta walk through on their way to France. It's about the size of Wales. Best comp is probably New Jersey, which is similar both in terms of area and population. But then look at the population density - much of Israel is the sparsely populated Negev, while New Jersey is a bit more spread out. I've been to New Jersey, it really does feel pretty small.
*hezbollah is fucking itself on the other hand, if say they do another anime speech and explode one iron dome launcher, then either ceasefire or genocide happens, what exact moral virtue will they extoll to new recruits? they claim war with israel is inevitable, and then they blow their clearest morally- and geopolitcally-wise chance to do something drastic. From feely perspective, nothing less than exploding generation facilities makes sense, and thats minimally proportional option since like invasion of gaza. Evidently they don't think so, and their fighters have obviously lives of their own to protect, but organizationally its suicide.
Call me a fool, but I still maintain hope that someday something good will happen. Whether that's tomorrow or a million years from now remains to be seen. But I also maintain hope that something will happen soon that actually leads to lasting, positive change. It might take a very long time, perhaps even after we're all dead, but we will eventually get there, comrade. Mark my words,