Bulletins and News Discussion from July 1st to July 7th, 2024 - Morales vs Arce - COTW: Bolivia
Image is of Bolivian President Luis Arce (center, with glasses) face-to-face with General Zuñiga (in camouflage) during the coup attempt.
On the 26th of June, while Hexbear was in an 8-hour hibernation, General Juan José Zuñiga marched 200 troops and some armored vehicles on the government palace in an attempt to overthrow the democratically elected government of Luis Arce. This is somewhat reminiscent of Jeanine Anez's coup in November 2019 where she overthrew the socialist president Evo Morales, but while that coup was due to a colour revolution likely orchestrated by the United States and had at least a tiny amount of political/public legitimacy and "followed the rules" in a certain sense (as Morales was trying to abolish presidential term limits, which is only evil if a socialist is doing it), this was a much more naked attempted seizure of power by a military general.
This coup was quickly terminated without even a momentary transfer of power. Democracy was saved.
Despite being in the same party, Morales and Arce have increasingly been in opposition. Morales champions anti-imperialism, rights for indigneous people, and poverty reduction. This last one especially has been threatened by Arce, though it's not entirely his fault, as the Bolivian economy is threatened by the same crisis affecting so many developing economies around the world right now - say it with me now - a lack of dollars and mounting debt. The US Federal Reserve is carrying out a bloody offensive against the world's poor, and this has combined nastily with a rather uninspiring "post"-coronavirus economic recovery in Bolivia, as well as diminishing natural gas production (and thus less exports with which to earn dollars).
While the coup was ongoing, Morales banded behind the government. Afterwards, however, Morales expressed his skepticism about whether the coup was, in fact, genuine, calling for an independent investigation into it, and saying that Arce “disrespected the truth, deceived us, lied, not only to the Bolivian people but to the whole world." This is because General Zuñiga made a series of very interesting statements to his family and colleagues, saying that Arce had "betrayed" him, and saying that Arce had told him “‘The situation is very screwed up, very critical. It is necessary to prepare something to raise my popularity.'" This does check out on the surface level, at least: Arce has suffered increasing unpopularity as the economy has suffered.
Interestingly, Morales' narrative has been supported by the anarchocapitalist leader of Argentina, Javier Milei, who is currently busy completely destroying his own country and stripping the copper out of the walls to give to American capitalists. Milei said that the coup attempt was "fraudulent". Meanwhile, those inside MAS opposed to Morales' accusations of a false coup have accused him of allying with the fascist right and becoming an instrument of imperialism.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Bolivia! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section. Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war. Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language. https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one. https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts. https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel. https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator. https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps. https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language. https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language. https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses. https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
SCMP - ‘Indisputable sovereignty’: Philippines’ UN filing reignites Sabah dispute with Malaysia
US vassal antagonises neighbours to appeal to sensationalist sensibilities of their masters.
I’d be more forthcoming if this was a precursor to reviving Maphilindo in a more non-aligned and anti-imperialist union of states (not like that’s coming anytime soon but a man can dream right?) and not just a cheap claim to make transnational corporations exploit the natural resources easier without state oversight.
Only one of the countries have a state-owned oil corporation with control of the entire oil production and distribution process, while the other privatised their downstream sector for “greater market efficiency”. Talking about sovereignty is ironic.
A recent Philippine submission to the United Nations over claims to seabed territory has sparked vigorous protests from Malaysia, reviving a long-standing territorial dispute over Sabah in northern Borneo.
The historically complex dispute, which can be traced back to colonial-era agreements, has significant political and economic implications for both nations given the region’s considerable oil and gas resources.
Still having to deal with colonial shenanigans because most people in Southeast Asia still haven’t achieved any true self-determination.
Malaysia submitted a diplomatic note to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres on Saturday rejecting a filing from the Philippines to the UN.
Manila had registered its entitlement to an extended continental shelf in the Western Palawan region of the South China Sea, defining the seabed areas over which it has sovereign and exclusive rights to exploit for natural resources.
Malaysia said it “categorically” rejected the Philippines’ filing on the basis that the extended continental margin in the submission “was projected from the baselines of the Malaysian state of Sabah”.
“This clearly disregards Malaysia’s indisputable sovereignty over the state of Sabah,” the diplomatic note said.
Malaysia’s protest came just as the country’s foreign minister, Mohamad Hasan, paid a courtesy call on President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr in Malacanang Palace and met his Philippine counterpart, Enrique Manalo, on Monday.
Complicated history
The controversy over the ownership of Sabah, located on the northern tip of Borneo, stems from colonial-era agreements. In 1878, the sultan of Sulu, who owned Sabah, signed a “permanent lease” agreement with the British North Borneo Company, which the sultan’s heirs to this day interpret as a lease, while Malaysia sees it as a cession. This disagreement lies at the heart of the dispute.
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We should have handled the monarchs Indonesian-style.
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When Malaysia was formed in 1963, incorporating Sabah, the Philippines lodged a formal claim, arguing that Sabah rightfully belonged to the sultanate of Sulu and thus to the Philippines. Malaysia, however, maintains that the territory was legitimately ceded to it by the British. The dispute has persisted, periodically flaring up due to diplomatic notes, legal actions, and even armed incursions.
Malaysia had been paying an annual “rent” of 5,000 silver dollars to the heirs of the sultanate of Sulu due to the 1878 agreement, which stipulated that the grant of lease was “forever and until the end of time” in exchange for rent payments. Malaysia halted payments in 2013 after one of the heirs mounted an unsuccessful bid to take over Sabah.
The cessation of payments subsequently led the heirs to seek arbitration in a French court, which resulted in a US$15 billion ruling against Malaysia. The judgment included compensation from Petronas, Malaysia’s state-owned oil and gas company, for the extraction of oil and gas resources in Sabah.
However, the Paris Court of Appeal ruled in 2023 that the arbitration tribunal had no jurisdiction, effectively nullifying the award and supporting Malaysia’s stance against the claim .
Yeah I still don’t understand out of all the colonizers which had a presence in Maritime SEA, you’d pick France.
The last Philippine president to actively espouse, then backtrack on, the sultanate’s claim was Ferdinand Marcos Snr. Since his ouster in 1986, Manila has not formally recognised the sultan of Sulu.
Unresolved tensions
Julkipli Wadi, dean of the University of the Philippines’ Institute of Islamic Studies, told This Week in Asia that the Malaysian government should “show transparency” over the Sabah issue and that he expected the Marcos administration to shelve the dispute as did his predecessors.
“If it is shown that the oil that Petronas has been harvesting for decades comes from the Sulu Sea, then Malaysia should be man enough to open all books and never hide under the cloak of false claim and unwarranted use of other people’s and other country’s resources,” said Wadi, who hails from Sulu.
He expressed scepticism that a “strong position” over Sabah could be expected from Marcos Jnr “beyond beautifully crafted words”.
Marcos Jnr’s predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, also set aside the dispute even though his foreign secretary, Teodoro Locsin Jnr, posted on social media in 2020 that “Sabah belongs to the Philippines”.
I can respect Duterte’s more independent foreign policy. The same can’t be said with the current running dogs running the Philippines.
Political risk analyst Ronald Llamas told This Week in Asia that the president could not afford to be the first Philippine leader to drop the Sabah claim. “He has to negotiate for something, [or] at least appear to be negotiating. And he won’t simply drop the legacy of his father on Sabah.”
Llamas said the Philippines could still settle the dispute over Sabah through negotiations. “We can talk, clarify, negotiate with Malaysia, unlike Chinawho have not only built, but weaponised their artificial islands within our exclusive economic zone,” he said.
China catching strays from the Philippines again. We get it. Your master told you to bark and you are just following orders. You don’t have to make it transparent.
The government could also negotiate on behalf of the sultan’s heirs and his family, Llamas said.
It is unclear, though, with the South China Sea dispute on his plate, whether Marcos Jnr would be willing to devote time to the Sabah dispute.
In August 2022, his press secretary at the time, Trixie Cruz-Angeles, said the Sabah issue was “a private claim” by the sultan’s family and therefore “not an issue of sovereignty or of territory at the moment”.
The country’s recent UN submission, however, would categorically make Sabah a sovereignty issue.
Western dog barks at neighbours to ensure instability in the waterways that most of the world’s trade passes through. This reality doesn’t change just because you say something else.