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Last 10 years showed how pathetic Russian foreign policy really is.
Great power can't maintain its bases... That ain't a great power that's a failed empire wanna be
I never really felt Russia had much of a dog in the Syrian Civil War. I always assumed their interest in Assad was purely to grind American efforts in the region.
Willing to bet they'll just as soon support the new regime or its opposition based on the same calculus.
They needed enough stability for their bases...
Assad was the guy, they will work with the new guy if he let's them.
But new guy is turkey affiliate so he prolly will not let Russians stay.
Turkey never liked Russians being there so them getting deposed isn't great news for them.
Turkey is winning big time in the region first Armenia and now Syria
There's more. Tartus was russian logistics base for their various African activities, like wagner in Mali or supporting Haftar in Lybia (there's still civil war going on there remember?) Turks do not want to see support for Haftar, so Tartus and Latakia bases need to go. Maybe they'd try to get Assad back and try him in exchange for letting bases stay in some capacity
Also there are some rumors about SDF advancing in Deir-ez-Zor getting evidence that russians did a few false flags as ISIS, so there's that
This is on top of this "we don't want the people who bombed our hospitals" thing. There's probably a few more layers that i don't even know are there
Too credible.
Except Erdogan likes Putin, even purchasing Russian s400 rockets despite being a NATO member and offered US patriot systems. Its why the first Trump administration had to sanction them and remove them from f35 eligibility.
It's less that Erdogan likes Putin, Erdogan will strike a deal with anyone for his own gain. He was manoeuvring between west and east, but now it's turkish vs russian interests and he won't let it go, unless he trades it for something else. But this time russians have little to offer, and are much more openly hostile to NATO
I can give million examples of doing shit to show other wise...
He shot down a Russian fighter jet...
Russia's army is a sloppy and disobedient one, the Russian emperor entirely relies on the power of having the keys to unshackle Fenrir.