Bulletins and News Discussion from November 4th to November 10th, 2024 - This is a Giant Problem

The Ukraine War is Lost. Three Options Remain

1. WW3
2. Ukraine as a failed state
3. Negotiate

Beebe says the West has an erroneous idea as to the very nature of the conflict. The US and the Europeans defined the Russian invasion as a “deterrence model problem” rather than a “spiral model problem”. In the former, the adversary is a kind of Hitler that must be stopped at all costs.

“We have internalised that model as a universal truth in international relations. We believe every problem that we’re facing is that deterrence model problem and we can’t possibly negotiate.”

In reality, Beebe says, the conflict conforms to what Robert Jervis defined back in the 1970s as a “spiral model problem” – where you have one state that attempts to enhance its own security by taking measures (for example, Ukraine joining NATO) that another state (Russia) believes are threatening. You get into a dynamic of action and reaction that can spiral to the point where you get into a conflict.

“When you attempt to deal with a spiral problem by refusing to negotiate, you make the problem worse on both sides. It’s like pouring gasoline on a fire,” Beebe says.

The former head of the CIA’s Russia desk argues that if we are to think our way out of the disaster that is Ukraine, the West needs to rediscover diplomacy and the ability to negotiate with geostrategic opponents. US triumphalism after the fall of the Berlin Wall led, he says, to the US feeling it could abandon statecraft.

“We no longer felt that we had to engage in normal diplomatic give-and-take, attempting to balance interests as well as balance power – the kinds of things that statecraft has involved for thousands of years. We thought that wasn’t necessary. Number one: we know we’re right.

And number two: US power was just so disproportionately greater than any other country’s power, we could simply impose our views, whether they liked it or not.”

The Ukrainians face a terrible dilemma. Most seem to realize the war is lost. Any attempt at negotiation with the Russians, however, would unleash internal pressures inside Ukraine that could lead to a coup, assassinations or other upheaval. The US won’t want the war to end before President Biden leaves office in January 2025 – and may prolong the agony, loss of life and the ceding of yet more territory to Russia for US domestic reasons rather than the best interests of Ukraine. Where is all this leading?

George Beebe sees three options. NATO escalates and becomes directly involved in the fighting – action that could have unspeakable consequences. More likely, Ukraine could suffer a collapse – a combination of military and political failure as the ability to put an effective army in the field is lost.

“If I am wearing my analyst hat, I would say the more likely scenario is Ukraine collapses and becomes some sort of dysfunctional ward of the West. We then have more or less a security black hole in the middle of Europe that causes real problems.”

Absent an agreed framework, other hot spots could flare at any time – including Georgia, Moldova, Belarus, Kaliningrad.

The third option, and clearly the preferable one for Beebe, is that the West changes course and “picks up the phone”, ending its refusal to negotiate.

“The West has got to recognize that it is important for us to find a negotiated settlement,” Beebe says.

“We can’t simply say to the Russians, let’s freeze the conflict in Ukraine, and someday we’ll get down to talking about broader European security – ‘trust us’. That’s not going to work. We’re going to have to indicate that we understand that these issues are important and that it is in our self-interest to address them in a way that accommodates Russia’s core security interests. The Russians are not going to get everything they want out of this. Neither will we. Both sides are going to have to get their most vital interests protected in all of this. That’s a truism in diplomatic agreements.”

And that is how grown-ups talk.