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Is 538 good again?
538 isn't anything special, its only major claim to fame was being less wrong in 2016 but since Nate Silver left and took his model with him that's not a factor anymore. But for what it's worth, pretty much all models are showing similar predictions, including Silver's.
Personally I place a good amount of stock in the Economist prediction model on the logic that it's a magazine for rich people whose money may be affected by the election so they have incentive to be accurate
oh no, my weapons stocks!
wait nevermind I'm making millions either way
But you could be making even more money
I genuinely don't know which would make an arms dealer more money
I am almost inclined to say Harris
Nate Silver left 538, and it's gotten really bad since. Not that it was perfect when he was there, but it got worse.