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Evidence that third party votes would of voted otherwise? If people don't like any candidates, they might not vote at all
Or, they might vote Republican. In 2016, Clinton was na clear establishment candidate and Trump was a (fake) populist. Voters who went Green or Libertarian as a vote against the establishment were unlikely to swing to Hillary.
I'm not sure that dynamic still holds now. The MAGA faithful think Trump is a populist, but I don't think anyone else does.
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