Bulletins and News Discussion from October 14th to October 20th, 2024 - Paper Tigers
Bulletins and News Discussion from October 14th to October 20th, 2024 - Paper Tigers
Image is a frame taken from this video of Iranian missiles raining down on Israel without interception due to a weak and depleted air defense system after a year of war and genocide.
Mao, 1956:
Now U.S. imperialism is quite powerful, but in reality it isn't. It is very weak politically because it is divorced from the masses of the people and is disliked by everybody and by the American people too. In appearance it is very powerful but in reality it is nothing to be afraid of, it is a paper tiger. Outwardly a tiger, it is made of paper, unable to withstand the wind and the rain. I believe the United States is nothing but a paper tiger.
When we say U.S. imperialism is a paper tiger, we are speaking in terms of strategy. Regarding it as a whole, we must despise it. But regarding each part, we must take it seriously. It has claws and fangs. We have to destroy it piecemeal. For instance, if it has ten fangs, knock off one the first time, and there will be nine left, knock off another, and there will be eight left. When all the fangs are gone, it will still have claws. If we deal with it step by step and in earnest, we will certainly succeed in the end.
Strategically, we must utterly despise U.S. imperialism. Tactically, we must take it seriously. In struggling against it, we must take each battle, each encounter, seriously. At present, the United States is powerful, but when looked at in a broader perspective, as a whole and from a long-term viewpoint, it has no popular support, its policies are disliked by the people, because it oppresses and exploits them. For this reason, the tiger is doomed. Therefore, it is nothing to be afraid of and can be despised. But today the United States still has strength, turning out more than 100 million tons of steel a year and hitting out everywhere. That is why we must continue to wage struggles against it, fight it with all our might and wrest one position after another from it. And that takes time.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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The first actual evidence of North Korean troops being present in Russia has just been released, with a video showing soliders speaking what sounds like Korean, and getting outfitted with Russian military gear likely in the far east of Russia, near the border with the DPRK. I wonder what will happen with these troops, are they in Russia just for military drills, or will they be deployed to the front lines.
I think if they do end up on the front lines (which seems more likely as time passes), it is a negative signal for stability in the Korean peninsula, and shows that the DPRK are preparing for war and want battlefield experience in a modern conflict. This would likely be in response to the military escalation by the ROK, who unveiled the gigantic bunker buster Hyunmoo-5 IRBM, a missile the weight and size of an ICBM, but with a range of only 3000km, while simultaneously flying drones over Pyongyang this month. The message is clear. This is a first strike weapon designed to take out the leadership of the DPRK in a decapitation strike, and the ROK can track them with surveillance drones.
The DPRK's reaction to this massive escalation in the media has been to deny the effectiveness of this weapon and call it useless, but to me the actions taken by the DPRK in response (stating that reunification is not possible, blowing up roads connecting to the ROK, artillery on high alert) show that they think the opposite with regards to this escalation. If North Korean troops end up fighting in Kursk or Ukraine, it would be one further sign that the DPRK are preparing for war and improving their combat readiness.
I don't see anything in that video that says "North Korean fighting for Russia in Ukraine" I see a bunch of Asian men getting some kit. The South Korean r*dditor is saying they aren't sure that the accent is even North Korean. How hard would it be for korea or some think tank to get a bunch Russian replica kit and some actors and make a poor quality video to prop up the claims that DPRK is fighting in Ukraine?
Even if these really are North Koreans and those really are Russian uniforms and kit... Russia have just restarted officer training agreements with DPRK so these could just be Koreans getting enrolled.
Nobody seems to care that hundreds or even thousands of polish army regulars fighting under polish army commanders have been fighting in Ukraine. Nobody was shocked when the videos of the invasion of Kursk region featured Americans speaking English. Nobody is surprised when a hotel blows up in ukraine and turns out to be full of french men. So why should it be a thing if some Koreans want to join the Russian army and fight in Ukraine? It doesn't "say" anything about the state of the war. It doesn't change the facts on the ground or geo-politically.
This is a western media nothing burger to distract from zelenskys latest speeches and world tour. To distract from the fact that the peace summit was canceled. To distract from the fact that Ukraine is cooked.
If you are under threat of being attacked by American proxies, and you are on good terms with Russia it makes perfect sense to send military observers to Ukraine to learn how you handle American equipment and tactics.
I'd argue that military observers from the DPRK have been in Russia for a while now. We know that North Korean Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs) have been used by Russia since January 2024, in the solid fueled KN-23 missile, there are pictures of it's debris at target sites in the aftermath of strikes. This is different, this is an infantry deployment.
NIS (ROK intel agency) says DPRK has deployed 12,000 to Ukraine.
Obviously they lie like shit but we will see eventually if they have.
it used to be called the KCIA but I guess that was a little too on the nose
While the photographic evidence they provided looks untrustworthy, even going on about AI facial recognition, the satellite imagery seems to be a slam dunk, showing Russian ships docking in the DPRK and returning to Russia.
If North Korean troops end up fighting in Kursk or Ukraine, it would be one further sign that the DPRK are preparing for war and improving their combat readiness.
That's a point I haven't considered. It makes a lot of sense.
The video realased has bullshit providence and proves nothing imo
Putin submitted the draft of the agreement with the DPRK just this week. This is a good time for circunstancial evidence like this.
Yes this seems quite clear if its all true the DPRK wants field experience and it may have been what was already agreed back in June. If Russia is truly commiting to a defensive alliance with the DPRK then its not at all unlikely Ukraine war cooperation was part of the deal.
I also don't understand why people want to be so opposite to this idea, the DPRK is doing exactly what China should be doing imo. One country is arming and preparing for war while the other watches the world burn and decides now is the time to get in bed with Wall Street while crying US bad every UN meeting.
As for your point on stability, I wonder the significant of these recent SK drones crossing the border not because of stupid pamphlets, but because its obvious at the very least SK may have learned from Ukrainian tactics. These are quite obvious field tests and could be a warning sign.
I think one thing that should be mentioned about drones is that Russia is not omnipotent and has suffered from the occasional successful Ukrainian drone attacks, indeed some hits on Russian airbases was a terrible look e.g Morozovsk recently. Russia says there was no damage but you're shifting the goal post Ukrainians and the west are stupid and incompetent and shouldn't have managed to even get there remember? Famous Russian cope exists from the very start of the war too.
Of course it doesn't mean Ukraine is winning(or is even capable) but these are lessons that must be learned like the fact Russia lost a number of ships now. Doesn't change the war but it shapes the future understanding of war.
I'm willing to bet the DPRK understands this threat now can't be ignored. The same kind of strikes on DPRK infrastructure could be devastating so the logical conclusion is the DPRK wants to be ready for a snap war declaration if such an incident happens. It doesn't have to mean they're willing to go on the offensive overnight for no reason, but that they'll take no excuses or justifications for SK aggression.
I also don't understand why people want to be so opposite to this idea
They probably don't want the war to escalate. If North Korean infantry are officially confirmed to be on the battlefield, Ukraine might start fielding French infantry for example. This opens up a cycle of escalation that many would like to avoid.
As for your point on stability, I wonder the significant of these recent SK drones crossing the border not because of stupid pamphlets, but because its obvious at the very least SK may have learned from Ukrainian tactics. These are quite obvious field tests and could be a warning sign.
The drones in my opinion, were there to prove a point. The DPRK called the ROKs new weapons useless and said that they don't matter. By flying over a bunch of spy drones, they are showing that these weapons might not be so useless after all, should they be able to track senior figures of the DPRK government.