Bulletins and News Discussion from October 7th to October 13th, 2024 - Happy International Paragliding Day!
Bulletins and News Discussion from October 7th to October 13th, 2024 - Happy International Paragliding Day!
One year on. Hundreds of thousands are dying or dead, millions are displaced, the Middle East is undergoing its greatest changes in a generation, Iran has directly attacked Israel twice in one year, and Yemen has proven that the US Navy ain't worth shit. We are the closest we have been to nuclear war (discounting accidents) in decades, but also the fall of Israel.
Because one day, the prisoners of a concentration camp paraglided over a wall.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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How Might Iran React to a Major Israeli Attack?
https://xcancel.com/SinaToossi/status/1843368522224685197Iranian officials, media, and analysts close to the government have been signaling potential responses to an Israeli strike on Iran.
They are heavily emphasizing Israel's small size and its vulnerable critical infrastructure, such as oil and gas fields, power plants, refineries, desalination facilities, and the Dimona nuclear reactor.
The message they intend to signal is clear: if Israel targets key Iranian infrastructure like its oil facilities, Iran will retaliate in kind, potentially crippling Israel's economy.
For example, one Iranian analyst highlighted the following energy vulnerabilities in Israel:
đź”»"Oil and gas contribute approximately 39% and 42%, respectively, to Israel's energy mix, with more than 80% of its total energy supplied by a few key facilities, making the regime vulnerable to military attacks.
đź”»"In 2023, Israel imported 225,000 barrels of oil per day, 60% of which came from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. The imported oil is processed at two refineries: Haifa and Ashdod.
🔻"Israel’s gas production and consumption in 2023 were 23.5 and 12.6 billion cubic meters, respectively, with surplus gas exported to Egypt and Jordan. The regime’s gas production is heavily reliant on the Leviathan and Tamar fields, which contribute equally.
🔻"Israel’s gas infrastructure is so vulnerable that the destruction of a single gas field would halt its exports to Egypt and Jordan. If both fields were destroyed, 42% of Israel’s total energy supply would be eliminated."
There is also much more open talk of potential nuclear breakout in Iran currently.
Notably, Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Islamic Republic's founder Ayatollah Khomeini, and a figure known for his moderate and pragmatic stance, recently suggested that Iran may need to build a nuclear weapon while simultaneously expressing support for negotiations.
Meanwhile, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, during a his Friday prayer sermon, stated that Iran's October 1 missile strike was the "minimum" of its capabilities to “punish” Israel.
Concurrently, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi has been traveling the region, continuing to push for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon and call for de-escalation.
All this is to say, Iran is clearly preparing for various scenarios.
If Israel responds with significant force, particularly targeting Iranian infrastructure, Iran is likely to counter-escalate proportionally, potentially spiraling the situation into full-scale war.
However, if Israel's response is more measured and largely superficial—amplified in the media to manage Israeli public perception—escalation might be avoided, at least temporarily.
Nonetheless, tensions are unlikely to fully subside until the wars in Gaza and Lebanon reach a conclusion.
Fortunately for the Israeli government, their NATO allies are all highly industrialized and haven't spent a half-century de-industrializing for the benefit of finance capital and can easily supply them with whatever equipment and expertise is needed to quickly repair damaged infrastructure.