Bulletins and News Discussion from September 30th to October 6th, 2024 - Qassam, Qassem, Quagmire
Bulletins and News Discussion from September 30th to October 6th, 2024 - Qassam, Qassem, Quagmire
Image is of the aftermath of an Israeli bombing of Beirut in 2006.
We are now almost one year into the war and genocide in Gaza. Despite profound hardship, the Gazan Resistance continues its battles against the enemy, entirely undeterred. Despite Israeli proclamations throughout 2024 that they have cleared out Hamas from various places throughout Gaza, we still see regular attacks and ambushes against Zionist forces. Just today (Monday), Al Qassam fighters ambushed and destroyed another convoy of Israeli vehicles. The predictions early on in the war were that Israel would defeat Hamas in mere months, needing only until December, then January, and so on. This has proven very much untrue. Israel is stuck in the mud; unable to destroy their enemy due to their lack of knowledge about the "Gaza Metro" and, of course, a lack of actual fighting skill, given how many times I've seen Zionists getting shot while they gaze wistfully out of windows.
The same quagmire will occur in Lebanon, only considerably worse. Both Nasrallah and Sinwar possess a similar strategy of luring Zionist forces onto known, friendly territory, replete with traps and ambushes, to bleed them dry of equipment, manpower, and the will to continue fighting. The scale of the invasion could fall anywhere on the spectrum from "very limited" - more of a series of raids on Hezbollah positions than truly trying to occupy land - to a total invasion which would seek to permanently take control of Southern Lebanon. Neither is likely to destroy, or even substantially diminish Hezbollah's fighting abilities. This is not wishful thinking: Hezbollah has convincingly defeated Israel twice before in its history, pushing them from their territory, and both times Hezbollah had almost no missiles and a limited supply of other equipment, relying on improvisation as often as not. The Hezbollah of 2024 is an entirely different organization to that of the early 2000s.
Attempts to drive wedges between Hezbollah and the rest of Lebanon are also unlikely to succeed. Hezbollah is not just a military force, it is extremely interlinked into various communities throughout Lebanon, drawing upon those communities to recruit soldiers. Throughout its history, it has provided education, healthcare, reconstruction, and dozens of other services one would attribute to a state. Amal Saad's recent suggestion of using "quasi-state actor" as a more respectful replacement for the typical "non-state actor" seems advisable. And the decentralized command structures, compartmented leadership, strong succession planning, and aforementioned community ties almost entirely neutralizes the effectiveness of assassinations. Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem has confirmed that Hezbollah's path has been set by Nasrallah, and his martyrdom will not stop nor even pause their efforts. Additionally, he confirmed that despite the recent attacks by Israel which nominally focussed on destroying missile depots, Hezbollah's supply of weapons has not been degraded, and they are still only using the minimum of their capabilities.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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Full satellite imagery has been released on the results of the Iranian ballistic missile attack on Nevatim Air Base in Israel. For now, 33 direct hits can be seen:
Note that this is not counting the hits from attacks on other bases.
I was assured most where intercepted.... The IDF wouldn't lie?
They're lying because they've been figured out. Iron Dome is not designed and can't be used to intercept ballistic missiles. David's Sling has all the same flaws as the Patriot air defence system it's based on when intercepting ballistic targets, Arrow-3, the system that aims to intercept ballistic missiles in space, can be bypassed by Iran's Fattah-1 missiles due to their ability to manoeuvre in space. This just leaves Arrow-2 as a viable intercept system, as it aims to intercept ballistic missiles in their terminal phase of flight, as the warhead re-enters the Earth's atmosphere and homes in on the target. This works with missiles that are single stage and slow down considerably on re-entry, but for missiles with a rocket stage on the warhead that impact the target at hypersonic speeds, the intercept window is tiny time wise, so it can be overwhelmed.
US Congress is working on legislation that will create new definitions for “truth” and “lie.”
So, what, 190 missiles, assuming they were split evenly among 5 targets, would be 38 missiles per target, meaning 13% were intercepted? I know that's a lot of assumptions but regardless of how you estimate, seems like they didn't intercept many.
Iran claiming 90% of missiles went through when only 87% of missiles went through
Time to be a doomer again
maybe we'll get a visit from HexbearCopingYetAgain or whatever they name their new account as a special treat
That seems consistent with the footage. A couple plucked off of the volley. Which I found strangely comforting, it means they were trying and falling.
I had a teacher that once said if you can get a 0% multiple choice test he would give you a 100%, but if you didn't hit 0% you get the grade you got.
Did anyone ever get a 100 that way?
Nevatim probably got a bulk of the missiles as it is a huge air base and also the base that carried out the Nasrallah assassination.
I think it was 180 missiles total, and looking at the results, Israel probably prioritised intercepting missiles targeting Mossad HQ over the three bases and the oil rig.
I wonder if they were actually targeting anything in those southern and western ones. There isn't anything apparent on the map in those spots.
Permanently Deleted
It depends on what missiles were used. The Kheibar Shekan and Emad missiles have movable aerodynamic fins on the warhead/re-entry vehicle(RV) itself, allowing for high accuracy. Fattah-1 has both movable aerodynamic fins and a vectoring rocket on the RV, allowing for high accuracy and a hypersonic impact speed on the target. The Ghadr-110 missile only has a actuating/vectoring rocket on its RV, so it's less accurate as it doesn't have aerodynamic fins/wingtips.
For accuracy, for Ghadr-110 you're looking at a >100m Circular Error Probability(CEP), or median error radius. So the radius of the circle, when centred at the target, that 50% of warheads will land in. For Emad missiles, that's around a 50m CEP. For Kheibar Shekan and Fattah-1, CEP is likely <20m.
is my idea viable at all? do air defenses deflect missiles at least on occasion instead of missing or succeeding?
It could be viable, but the source of the satellite imagery and the impact count said that all counted impact craters appear to be from intact re-entry vehicles.
The craters/damaged buildings look like they were hit with intact reentry vehicles.
Those are probably hits from the Ghadr-110, it's Iran's most inaccurate guided ballistic missile as it has no aerodynamic fins to guide it on re-entry, it relies solely on its actuating solid fuel rocket motor attached to the warhead itself for maneuvering. This leads to a 100-300m Circular Error Probability(CEP), or median error radius for the mathematical term. The radius of a circle, when centred at the target, that 50% hits will land inside of.
With Meta and others starting to ban the
I guess the yellow thumbtack is the replacement.I only have a red one, is this giod enough? 📌
Was this earlier today, or a previous missile barrage?
This was from the big Iranian ballistic missile attack a few days ago.