Bulletins and News Discussion from September 23rd to September 29th, 2024 - The War In The North
Bulletins and News Discussion from September 23rd to September 29th, 2024 - The War In The North
Image is of a Hezbollah missile attack on a military camp west of Jenin.
The situation between Hezbollah and Israel is rapidly escalating, with massive bombing campaigns on southern Lebanon by Israel predominantly on civilians (as the tunnels in South Lebanon are mostly unreachable to the Zionists, just like in Gaza), while Hezbollah and its allies respond with missile attacks predominantly on Israeli military facilities. Israel is spreading an evacuation order to the residents of southern Lebanese villages while also bombing their routes of escape and civilian infrastructure, similar to a terror tactic used widely in Gaza.
Northern Israel is currently under military censorship to hide their losses, so we get very little information other than what the Resistance provides and what videos and images get through the censors.
I don't know if Israel will dare a ground incursion soon, but it seems fairly likely in the coming days or weeks.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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What weapon systems do Hezbollah need to shoot down an F35? Something Chinese I'm guessing?
China has expressed explicit support for Lebanon here: https://archive.is/FCjiB
Beijing will continue to stand on the "side of justice and on the side of Arab brothers, including Lebanon," said Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
Hopefully that converts to actual materiel support because I really want them to shoot some of these raiding jets down. Surely this is a good opportunity for China to actually field test some of these weapons for efficacy.
The only way Chinese weapons are getting to the axis of resistance is through the black market or the DPRK. Hopefully they loosen up because I am expecting my qbz crate in the mail shortly
I'm not sure about that, Myanmar factions have weapons that can only come from China. Their public policy of non-interference is a good show but I am not completely convinced that it's a solid rule.
I would give an exception for border regions; I still doubt covert arms transfers to the resistance at the moment
More like something Russian in the S-400/SA-21. China's most advanced air defence systems are mainly combinations of older Soviet technology with newer American and Israeli command and control/fire control systems and radars. The most advanced domestically produced Chinese air defence system, the HQ-9, consists of a Soviet S-300PMU/SA-20 system with American/Israeli derived radar, seekers and command and control systems. China themselves imports Russian S-400/SA-21 systems to help bolster their air defence.
What's interesting from the Chinese perspective is that they have a version of the HQ-9 called the FT-2000, designed specifically to target Electronic Warfare (EW) jammer aircraft, along with Early Warning and AWACS aircraft, that are critical to Suppression of Enemy Air Defence (SEAD) operations. Aircraft such as the EA-18G Growler and now retired EA-6B Prowler.. For instance, the only time a stealth aircraft in the F-117 was shot down during combat, was when the EA-6B was unable to fly it's mission.
I don't think the Russians have demonstrated detection against the F35s but China has in warning them off the coast with all the Taiwan shit.
Taiwan doesn't even have F-35s...
Yeah but the US launches from ships and has flown them at the border of China numerous times testing capabilities. I remember they had these tall as fuck mobile radar things that were doing the detection but can't remember the name.
If you're talking about the various passive detection strategies China attempts to employ to detect stealth aircraft, from tall radio towers to using weather radars and even passive emissions from cell phone towers and starlink satellites, is not a new idea. The Serbs figured out how to do this back in 1999, by setting their P-18 early warning radars to their lowest frequently and highest bandwidth, they could detect stealth aircraft passively at a range of 24km/15miles. China is aiming to accomplish the same goal, but over much longer ranges, with their anti stealth radar platforms. China has come up with many different solutions in this regard.
However, a passive detection is not enough to fire a missile at a target. For that you need an active radar lock, and that is where it gets complicated. As soon as air defence systems try obtain an active lock against an enemy aircraft in a contested environment, the enemy can jam it and fire an anti radiation missile at the system's radars, followed up by conventional munitions against the rest of the system. We saw this on the Gulf War, we saw this in Serbia which led to Serbian SAM commanders only turning on their active radars for 20 seconds at a time, we've seen it in Ukraine where Russia has even employed their own stealth aircraft (Su-57) with anti radiation missiles to target Ukrainian air defence systems without being detected themselves.
This is why the FT-2000 is the most interesting Chinese air defence system from my perspective. It is the only air defence system in the world designed to specifically target Electronic Warfare aircraft like the EA-18G, with its own anti radiation Surface to Air Missiles. It targets the radar emissions of those aircraft instead of actively tracking them themselves. With those aircraft out of the sky, the possibilities in targeting stealth aircraft open up as you can do so without fear of countermeasures or detection.
As for the S-400 system, Turkish sources say that it can detect modern stealth aircraft at long ranges. Russia themselves have said that they were able to detect Israeli F-35s in Syria using the S-400 system. Lavrov even made public comments on it. China themselves bought multiple battalions of the S-400 system for a reason. But again, detection and actively shooting it down are different things.
No I'm talking about their JY line of mobile radar detector vehicles that are used in conjunction with missiles being capable of amplifying and tracking them but I can't remember the specific designation of the new vehicle.
The JY line of search radars, in particular the JY-9 and JY-26, which are often referred to as "anti stealth radars", just work on the same concept that Serbia figured out in the 90s, but at much longer ranges. Low frequency, in the VHF/UHF range, wide bandwidth radar to detect stealth aircraft. The amplification the media talk about is the phased array nature of the system, that allows for amplifying power at areas that aircraft are suspected to be at to increase detection probability. Russia also has UHF/VHF phased array "anti stealth" radars in their air defence systems, in particular the Protivnik-GE/59N6-E. The thing is, detection is one thing, and tracking and shooting is another. The range for a strong enough track/lock to fire a missile will be significantly shorter than detection range.