Bulletins and News Discussion from February 24th to March 2nd, 2025 - Fascists? In Germany?! - COTW: Germany

Image is a map of the German election results made by Andolu Agency.

The results are in from the German elections, and the outcome is pretty unsurprising for those who have been paying attention to the German socioeconomic situation, and prove our predictions from years ago correct. The conservatives (CDU/CSU) won the plurality of votes (28%), representing a slight gain from 2021. Meanwhile, Scholz's party, the SPD, collapsed from first place in 2021 to third place this year, almost halving their number of seats; the Greens had a less dramatic collapse but still lost many votes. The coalition of CDU/CSU + SPD seems like the most likely end result of this election; something something nothing ever happens but everything keeps getting worse.

Outside the main coalition, there's three important takeaways IMO.

First is that AfD - the far-right Euroskeptic party - has skyrocketed into second place, achieving a full 20% of the vote. This is definitely very concerning and does not exactly bode well for the future, but it isn't necessarily immediately disastrous, because the CDU/CSU (as well as the SDP and Greens) has vowed that they will not form a coalition with the AfD.

Second is that Die Linke - the pro-NATO, pro-Israel socdem party - has mostly reversed its awful performance in 2021, increasing its vote share from 4.9% to 8.8%. What this suggests is that while Germans are fleeing from the center, a very significant minority are going leftwards (though still aren't particularly anti-imperialist).

Third is that the BSW under Wagenknect, who split off from the Die Linke (absolute classic), appears to have barely fallen short of the 5% vote share needed to get seats in the Bundestag. The BSW has some good foreign policies (peace with Russia, for instance) but pretty awful domestic policies; quite patsoccy.

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The latest Harvard and Centre for American Political Studies poll on the opinions of registered US voters just came out today (was conducted online over the 19-20 February) , and boy it's a doozy. If you want the summary, it basically just backs up what previous polls from IPSOS and Rasmussen have been saying, so if you've followed my posts on that you'll have an idea of what's coming. The Democrats are screwed, Trump and his policies are popular, the Trump admin has relatively high approval, etc. I hope that you don't mind me indulging in this bit of electoralism, I am just quite shocked by some of the numbers. And don't worry, I've saved the best for last, American's opinions on foreign policy. Trust me, you'll want to have a look at those numbers, they are truly quite special.
Here's the direct link to the 55 page PDF so we can all read for ourselves, don't worry it's mostly graphs.
- roughly a quarter of voters have never heard of netanyahu, and even more don't have an opinion on him
  deeply unserious electorate, or the survey methods are fundamentally flawed and not corrected for
  
  Honestly that makes me believe the survey more, a quarter of Americans having no idea who Netanyahu is, sounds about right. I wonder how many could point to Israel, Palestine, Iran, Syria, etc, on a map.
  
  i truly wonder how people go about their day without knowing even the basics of geopolitics. like do you not read the news at all, not even a quick scroll on social media or outside, where surely a headline would be displayed? truly baffling to me
  
  The average newborn is more politically literate than the average Amerikkkan
  r
  
  Many years back, I worked for over a year at a large retailer chain. I tried to bring up any sort of politics or even just general news discussion to my coworkers (and I was pretty libbed up back then, so it was mostly just NPR headlines I heard on the commute), and literally no one even knew what I was talking about. Every single person I tried to talk to about current events told me the news stresses them out, or they're just not interested. I often heard "I'll just let you tell me what's happening, Tripartitegraph, and then we can talk about it." Americans are deeply incurious and self-absorbed.
  
  current events told me the news stresses them out,
  Which is basically as planned. Exploited workers never make the connection between the current news and their own situation.
  My sibling has basically told me this exact same thing and they work a 100k+ job in silicon valley.
  
  Without a doubt. Fresh outta school, it was the complete lack of curiosity that really stuck with me.
  That said, I'm now around STEM PhDs all the time, and they show a lower level of understanding and perspective than the retail people I worked with.
  
  Little cynical to say it but being ignorant of foreign affairs doesn't affect your life much as an American. Both parties are basically in sync. Only major difference is that Trump is willing to negotiate with Putin, which might end the war sooner but won't change the result.
- This mostly tracks since only cranks register to vote in the US. Why would someone waste time voting in a non-swing state? I live in a non-swing state, and the only people who consistently vote are college students, political cranks, bored retirees, and unhinged suburbanites. Actual normal people with sensible opinions (or what passes for sensible opinions in the US) don't vote.
  
  That's true, most voters™ obsessed with politics are cranks, but I've looked at general polls that poll everyone over 18, and the results aren't much better, sometimes they're worse. The two IPSOS polls that polled the general American population had 66% supporting the deportation of illegal immigrants and 79% opposing trans women in women's sports. That's worse than this Harvard CAPS poll, which was "only" 69% oppose on trans women in women's sports. So the polls on the general American population aren't looking great either, they're actually looking worse than the registered voters polls in some cases...
  
  Other polls where they show such high approval often will have contradictory results for more direct follow-up questions like about how undocumented people would be detained and deported. Basically questions on the methods to enact a concept are more concrete to the person being surveyed and suddenly those answers are less unhinged.
  Honestly it’s still just a deeply unserious, illiterate and miseducated electorate where fully 25% would legit just vote for actual Hitler 1.0
- I'm pretty skeptical of the accuracy of a single online poll to depict extremely specific American political views, especially in a new presidency where his moves haven't had time to have an effect. If these results keep coming up in a few months, then I'll be worried.
  
  The poll apparently uses some weighting to account for how online it's respondents are:
  Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.
  But yes I agree, some of the numbers are just the "honeymoon phase" of a new president, and I also expect those numbers to change and dip substantially, with regards to economic numbers and approval ratings. But others, back up trends that have been observed for months now in other polls, such as Trump beating the Democrats on most key issues, and Democrats having abysmal approval ratings, from AOC to Biden. That's been a 4-6 month trend now, and hasn't changed. The foreign policy ones are also quite consistent with regards to approval of Israel, that's remained unmoved since October 7 2023, between a 70/30 to 80/20 split in favour of Israel. The numbers on supporting ethnic cleansing in Gaza and wanting to start a war with Iran are just straight up alarming, and I can't see those changing, and if they do change, I can only see them getting worse. The only promising foreign policy trend is with regards to Ukraine, finally a vast majority want a negotiated settlement.
  
  But this other poll posted in this thread minutes before yours shows support for Israel has dropped precipitously, now down to 54%, and is lower than it's been in decades: https://news.gallup.com/poll/657125/views-israel-ukraine-mexico-divided-party.aspx
  Which one's right? Because this Gallup poll makes the one you posted look like it was just of Republicans (and it's not hard to imagine a bunch of online chuds gaming online polls)
- As expected, USAmerican domestic propaganda isn't designed to brainwash people but to provide tools to working class reactionaries to ostracize socialists/socialist ideas in their sphere. It's hard to build a labor movement that has solidarity with workers outside the Imperial Core when your supposed comrades support imperialism.
  61% think that US security guarantees should be contingent on Ukraine signing the 50/50 rare earths deal, and 69% support direct US security guarantees if the deal is signed.
  The people who voted yes on this will never see the profit that the resources deal will provide (it will all be funneled upwards to the ruling class without a doubt) yet they act as if they're in the war room deciding all this to happen.
  Genocide in Gaza didn't even crack 5%.
  Israel may be little satan but the US is the Great Satan.
  What the hell is happening in the USA?
  I guess it's what happens when one intentionally sabotages the social democracy valve of workers concessions in the imperial core (sanders) and instead opts for slashing the brakes on capitalism.
  
  The one thing that's consistent throughout these polls is the ability for Trump and the GOP to manufacture these issues where they get 66/33, to 70/30, to even 80/20 approval in their favour. From wanting war with Iran, to oppressing transgender people, to deporting immigrants. None of this was at the forefront a decade ago. As downright evil as it is, it's a perfect example of manufacturing consent, they really have changed the game there, a new wave of fascism. I don't know of a previous US politician that was so effective at this.
  I think Sanders was a flash in the pan, none of the other social democrats are as popular as him. AOC is more unpopular than Netanyahu! Like I understand almost none of us on the far left like AOC for her sellout behaviour to the Democratic Party, but I don't understand how the above is possible. How is the genocidal monster that is Netanyahu more popular than a milquetoast social democrat?
  
  Trump and the GOP...I don't know of a previous US politician that was so effective at this.
  I mean, it was a team effort across the aisle. Both parties ratchet up reactionary ideas for each other (whether it is radlib progressiveness or fascist scaremongering). Without the counterweight of the democratic party's idle progressive policies I think the culture war consent machine wouldn't nearly be as effective (you can't have DEI wokism if it was never instituted in the first place)
  I think it just adds more weight to the idea that supporting the democrats as a leftist is always a fools errand because it just sets up more dominos for the republicans to knock over.
  
  It shows the power of how ideas can be changed through leadership and public discourse. On the other hand, the Democrats refuse to change minds, preferring to instead blow with the winds of whatever the electorate is saying or thinking, obtained through polling and focus groups, which forces them to cede the framing of every issue to the Republicans. They're followers, not leaders.
  Now instead of arguing against deportations, they just argue they're doing them better. Instead of defending trans people, say nothing or you'll follow the law. Instead of defending against imperialism, say Iran is the #1 enemy and you'll have the most lethal army in the world (last one is a bad example because Democrats actually love imperialism, too, so that's not really ceding anything). Only thing they argue against is stuff they know poll good, which leaves abortion.
  We need another party do bad, but Democrats have so much more money and power. Like capitalism, no one sees an alternative.
  
  AOC is likely a plant anyway - she has some "sus" vacation period in Mauritania. Also her audience is twitter radlibs. While Bernie has had a long career in politics. Trump didnt need to manufacture anything - reactionaries have been working, setting up networks, and organising since the decline of evangelism as a strong political force. The material condition for the neoliberal "diversity & open borders" mindset is also dying, so there is no reason to extol minorities anymore. History is back and the stabilization aka return of the blatant white supremacy is back.
- With Musk I think it's because he's a billionaire and wants to get humanity to Mars with SpaceX, and that's enough for 44% of people to look over everything else. Americans love space exploration. I think Musk's approval also might be split more along age lines than party lines as well. It could also be "do you approve of him as a person" vs his current role. Many could still like him even if they don't like his current role.
  For me the most surprising thing was Facebook, +20% net approval? How? I can't believe Zuckerberg's silly makeover worked. And I guess a lot of older people spend a lot of time on Facebook.
  But I generally trust this poll, it collaborates a lot of what I'm seeing in other polls with regards to Trump's approval and so forth. So it can be reasoned that it got an accurate read on the rest from that perspective. But some of the figures are really surprising.
  
  I think people will turn on Musk once the recession hits and Trump use him as a scapegoat. Besides just being racist in general, USians also have a nativist streak, and Musk being "not from around here" despite being a racist Afrikaner will cost him. Average Americans don't give two shits about his Nazi salutes because the Nazi salute originally came from the US anyways. But Musk not being born and raised in the US is a liability if Trump wants to make it one. Democrats and various libs on social media are already using this as a talking point. I've even heard whispers of this irl as well. Whispers of "why are we letting a non-American be so close to the president?" even though Musk has US citizenship.
- What the hell is happening in the USA?
  cruelty squad is continuing to be a documentary
- Trump has a 52% approval rating, and net approval of +9% (43% disapprove). The only demographics Trump has a net negative approval rating with are 18-24 year olds and Black Americans. Every single other demographic has a net positive approval rating of Trump.
  Joe Biden had a 56 approval rating in Feb 2021 according to Gallup:
  https://news.gallup.com/poll/329384/presidential-approval-ratings-joe-biden.aspx
  I think this is just to early to mean anything for Trump.
  Democratic approval is pretty explainable, IMO: they have no actual message, so no one in excited.
- Americans are too illiterate for any poll to be truthful, but they’re just literate enough to be able to lead the polls to get the answers you want. Polls are largely useless for anything other than vibes
- What the hell is happening in the USA?
  none of the cool people with good opinions are registered voters, so this poll isn't that meaningful in terms of the opinions of the populace overall

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